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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Chook Tune of the Day
Australian Pelican, Carawine Gorge Camp Space, East Pilbara, Western Australia, Australia. “2 Feeding in water shallows inlet of a outlet channel. 1/2 moon. In a position to see fish however I did see some [go] handed which they missed.” Extra splashing!
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Politics
“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are actually a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
Our Famously Free Press
2024
Time for the Countdown Clock!
“Trump leads Biden amongst ‘double-haters’ in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin: ballot” [New York Post]. “Donald Trump has a slim benefit over President Biden amongst voters who dislike each major-party front-runners throughout three key battleground states, a Democrat-commissioned ballot has discovered. The previous president leads the present president 51% to 48% amongst so-called “double-haters” in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, in accordance with the survey performed by Democratic agency GQR on behalf of pro-Biden tremendous PAC Unite the Nation, first reported by NBC Information.”
* * *
“U.S. lawyer says probe of Biden-Ukraine ties, $10M bribe hamstrung by DOJ, FBI” [Washington Times]. “The U.S. lawyer assigned to look into the Biden household’s offers in Ukraine, together with allegations of pocketing a $10 million bribe, instructed Home lawmakers that the Justice Division and FBI considerably hobbled his investigation….. A key piece of proof beneath Mr. Brady’s overview was the transcript of an interview with one of many FBI’s most credible confidential human sources who mentioned he was instructed that then-Vice President Biden and his son Hunter Biden every accepted a $5 million bribe from the proprietor of Ukrainian vitality agency Burisma. Mr. Brady decided that the allegation was credible sufficient to warrant additional investigation and alerted three U.S. lawyer’s workplaces, together with the Delaware workplace investigating Hunter Biden on tax fraud fees. None of them adopted up.”
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“Democratic Rep. Dean Phillips launches a White Home bid, difficult Biden” [NBC]. “Requested if he was working for president subsequent 12 months, Phillips mentioned, ‘I’m. I’ve to.’ ‘I can’t sit nonetheless, I can’t be quiet within the face of numbers which are so clearly saying we’re going to be dealing with an emergency subsequent November,’ Phillips added. Biden’s marketing campaign didn’t instantly reply to a request for remark Thursday evening. Phillips, 54, has been a staunch critic of Biden’s re-election bid, citing a need for a youthful chief to interchange the 80-year-old president, and has beforehand referred to as on different candidates to problem him. ‘As a Democrat, I like Joe Biden. He saved this nation. He can cement his legacy,’ Phillips mentioned in an August interview on NBC Information’ ‘Meet the Press.’ ‘My actual name to motion proper now will not be about me. The decision to motion is to ask the president to move the torch.’ ‘Enter the first, my mates,’ Phillips added later within the interview. Everyone who’s on the bench, meet the second. Don’t wait 5 years. We’d like you now.’” • Everyone into the pool!
“55 Issues You Have to Know About Dean Phillips” [Politico]. “23. He and his spouse have a Norwich Terrier named Henry.” • Superb. How’s Henry within the biting division?
“Democratic U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips launches longshot bid for presidency” [Star-Tribune]. “Phillips began the marketing campaign roll-out late Thursday and filed for New Hampshire’s presidential main on Friday. He joyfully made his option to his marketing campaign bus Friday morning on one of the vital politically consequential days of his profession and mentioned ‘it’s time for change. It’s time for folks with completely different views, completely different backgrounds, completely different political views, to return collectively.’ However not lengthy after, Phillips extra straight confronted Biden’s standing. ‘The one individual serving to Donald Trump proper now, I’m afraid, is President Biden, and that’s the drawback,’ Phillips instructed reporters…. Phillips has a conceivable path to victory in New Hampshire as a result of Biden has chosen to not seem on the state’s main poll. Biden strongly helps the Democratic Nationwide Committee’s reshuffled order of state presidential primaries, which locations South Carolina forward of New Hampshire. And New Hampshire is defying the DNC by searching for to nonetheless maintain its main first. Which means the one Democrats on New Hampshire’s main poll may very well be Phillips, creator Marianne Williamson and different lesser-known candidates. Some Democrats in New Hampshire are anticipated to arrange a write-in marketing campaign for Biden. ‘I need to converse for the exhausted majority in America. The individuals who know that we’ve got reached some extent the place we’ve got bought to cease the nonsense,’ Phillips instructed reporters because the day started.” • Betting, it could appear, on Biden’s medical standing.
* * *
“Meet RFK Jr.’s eclectic, ragtag donor military threatening Biden and Trump in 2024” [Washington Examiner]. “An English rock star not keen on COVID-19 lockdowns, a left-wing movie director who has come beneath hearth for his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and a billionaire safety agency founder with ties to Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos. On its face, these three characters might not essentially appear to have a complete lot in frequent. What they do share, nonetheless, is bankrolling the long-shot White Home bid for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a Democrat turned impartial who thinks he has what it takes to unseat President Joe Biden within the 2024 presidential election…. Cash doesn’t lie, both. Between July and September, Kennedy raked in a powerful $8.7 million in marketing campaign donations. That’s $470,000 greater than the third quarter haul for ex-United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley, who at 8.3% polls third amongst Republican presidential hopefuls. Throughout that very same interval, it’s additionally $758,000 extra mixed than contributions to each Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) and former Vice President Mike Pence — whose campaigns have struggled to realize traction.” Additionally Timothy Mellon, Gavin de Becker, and Abby Rockefeller, billionaires all. Extra: “It’s a singular donor cohort, together with others who’ve given to Kennedy, and underscores how the candidate is pulling money from throughout the political spectrum.” • Many others listed.
“He Was As soon as a Favourite of the Proper. Now, Mike Pence Can’t Get a Crowd of 15 to a Pizza Ranch” [Politico]. “Iowa inflicts its personal quadrennial and peculiar political indignities and hazing rituals on candidates. However few have submitted to them so absolutely as Pence, who even his personal aides admit should ship a shock end right here subsequent January to maintain his decades-long presidential ambitions alive. He was the one candidate to truly trip a bike at Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst’s July Roast and Trip. He spent extra time on the Iowa State Honest than some other candidate.” • Commentary:
Mike Pence with a large crowd at this time. pic.twitter.com/yghuXFuSr2
— Ian Jaeger (@IanJaeger29) October 22, 2023
Politics is a tough recreation.
Republican Funhouse
“How Mike Johnson, Considered one of Congress’ Staunchest Non secular Conservatives, Turned Second in Line to the President” [People]. “Johnson’s political positions are largely attributed to his ultraconservative spiritual views, which have led him to combat for prayer in public colleges and foyer in opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage…. In a single editorial written in 2004, Johnson espouses assist for the Protection of Marriage Act, which banned the federal recognition of same-sex marriage till being discovered unconstitutional in 2015.” • DOMA having been signed by Invoice Clinton…..
“How Mike Johnson Went from Relative Obscurity to Speaker of the Home” [The New Yorker]. “The important thing to Johnson’s present standing amongst Home Republicans is his position within the aftermath of the 2020 election. Trump’s refusal to just accept the end result put his congressional supporters in a bind. Their base shared Trump’s perception within the illegitimacy of the result, however privately the Get together’s high leaders admitted that the President was unhinged…. Johnson had proposed an alternate that allowed members to skirt the query. In response to an in depth report, printed final 12 months within the Occasions, he instructed that Home Republicans might vote in opposition to certifying the outcomes not simply due to fraud, which nobody might show, however on arcane authorized grounds. ‘Constitutional infirmity,’ Johnson referred to as them. Many states had modified their voting procedures in response to the pandemic. However within the course of, he argued, that they had violated the Structure. In response to Johnson’s concept, they might solely make modifications to election protocol with the approval of every state’s personal legislature; consequently, Republicans might rule out the outcomes.” • That is the one helpful nugget in a babbling brook of aghastide, and it’s mistaken (and no matter occurred the New Yorker’s vaunted fact-checking division?). I went and located Johnson’s amicus temporary–
“Movement for Go away to File Transient Amicus Curiae and Transient Amicus Curiae of U.S. Consultant Mike Johnson and 125 Different Members of the U.S. Home of Representatives in Assist of Plaintiff’s Movement for Go away to File a Invoice of Grievance and Movement for a Preliminary Injunction” (PDF) [Supreme Court of the United States]. An amicus temporary for December 2020’s Texas v. Pennsylvania, which is a little bit of a seize bag, involving the “Electors Clause” (extra later), intrastate variations within the therapy of voters, and “materials illegality” in the course of the balloting course of within the defendant states (PA, GA, MI, WI).
• The treatment sought by TX Legal professional Normal Ken Paxton in Texas was “[to] enjoin the usage of illegal election outcomes with out overview and ratification by the Defendant States’ legislatures and remand to the Defendant States’ respective legislatures to nominate Presidential Electors in a way in line with the Electors Clause and pursuant to three U.S.C. § 2.” The Supreme Court docket declined to listen to the case based mostly on standing: “[T]he justices defined that Texas lacked a authorized proper to sue, often called standing, and didn’t have a authorized curiosity in how different states carried out their elections. In consequence, the courtroom rejected Texas’ lawsuit with out contemplating the deserves of the state’s case. Just about all authorized consultants had given the lawsuit little likelihood of succeeding from the second it was filed.”
• What Johnson did in his amicus temporary was toss out the woo woo (“materials illegality”), toss out differential therapy of voters, and focus solely on the Electors Clause: “Artwork. II, § 1, cl. 2, directs that: “Every State shall appoint, in such Method because the Legislature thereof might direct, a Variety of Electors, equal to the entire Variety of Senators and Representatives to which the State could also be entitled within the Congress.” From there, Johnson reveals that within the defendant states, balloting processes (mail drops, and many others.) had been actually modified by officers within the legislative department, with out legislative approval. Johnson concludes: “As members of the federal legislature, these amici search to guard the constitutional position of state legislatures in figuring out the way by which states select their electors.” Now, each the Texas temporary (partly) and Johnson’s temporary (wholly) appear to be based mostly on the “impartial state legislature concept,” which is controversial to say the least, however Johnson’s temporary is concentrated and to the purpose, in contrast to Paxton’s prolix screed. It’s additionally a chunk of intelligent lawyering that did the Republicans a giant, massive favor: It gave them a quick they might signal onto, each pleasing Trump and above all not shopping for into the woo woo being emitted by Trump’s circus of bent attorneys. No marvel he’s such a likeable fellow. Commentary:
worrying pic.twitter.com/2Pd51MdBrb
— derek man (@dieworkwear) October 27, 2023
I feel Derek Man is a superb account, and Mike Johnson (R-Brylcream) muscling in on it’s to be deplored.
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“The longer term seems to be Republican” [The Spectator]. “[W]hatever Trump may need performed proper or mistaken with respect to Covid in 2021, the pandemic would have remained a supply of dangerous headlines. With Afghanistan and Covid as defining problems with the primary half of Trump’s second time period, congressional Republicans would have confronted brutal leads to the 2022 midterms. Six-year midterms are traditionally agonizing for the get together within the White Home. With Trump within the White Home, and in that difficulty surroundings, no political handicapper can have any doubt about GOP fortunes in 2022. There’s no level in guessing what would have occurred within the final two years of a second consecutive Trump time period, however given the situations above, and the truth that a two-term president has been succeeded in workplace by a member of his personal get together solely as soon as because the Nineteen Fifties, one can predict with confidence that Republicans wouldn’t be on monitor to maintain the White Home in 2024. And a youthful, extra energetic Democrat than Joe Biden could be lined as much as crush Mike Pence that November. As a substitute, Biden is president, and the Democrats are dealing with a grim 2024.” • Believable, or cope?
Democrats en Déshabillé
Affected person readers, plainly persons are really studying the back-dated publish! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are various updates. So I should do this. –lambert
I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Get together (“the Democrat Get together is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated publish, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “dwell” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Get together is, actually, a tough drawback. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:
The Democrat Get together is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). It follows that the Democrat Get together is as “unreformable” because the PMC is unreformable; if the Democrat Get together didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. If the Democrat Get together fails to manipulate, that’s as a result of the PMC lacks the aptitude to manipulate. (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working components of the Get together reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Get together (ka-ching, however not fully) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.
Observe, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.
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Realignment and Legitimacy
“Typically in error however nonetheless seductive: Why we are able to’t give up election polls” [The Conversation]. “Considerably, election polling advantages from a what-else-is-there perspective amongst journalists, opinion researchers, historians of public polling and politicians that no different fairly correct choices exist in sampling the general public’s views and attitudes. Intensive interviewing by political journalists, an earnest approach referred to as ‘shoe-leather’ reporting, often has been tried by information organizations searching for an alternative choice to reliance on polls. However such experiments have produced little success.” • Maybe we’ve got polls just for narrative functions? One has to write down one thing, in spite of everything.
#COVID19
“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the deal with given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater experiences); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep secure on the market!
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Maskstravaganza
“Quantitative errors within the Cochrane overview on ‘Bodily interventions to interrupt or cut back the unfold of respiratory viruses’” (preprint) [arXiv]. “Our evaluation of the Cochrane overview and Loeb 2022 to this point demonstrates that these empirical research make the most of approaches for evaluation that make unfounded assumptions in estimating results. Whereas the strategies are standard, they comply with a pro-forma context that’s not grounded within the circumstances of the trials and observational research. On this part we introduce extra errors because of lacking knowledge, together with on non-study individuals, in addition to compounding results.” And:
Determine 2: A failure to guage assumptions and incorporate mathematical equations that correspond to check situations results in incorrect conclusions. The primary row reveals a typical illustration of estimates of results and confidence intervals. In lots of randomized managed trials (RCTs) and meta-analyses, random results equations (second row and Appendix A) are used to account for the influence of unobserved results that end in random variations between research teams, however don’t deal with systematic biases. Rows 3 by way of 8 within the desk present six distinct forms of errors in RCTs and meta-analyses of masks efficacy. Examples of how they seem in such research are described within the textual content, together with modifications in variables, corrected equations for outcomes (dashed rectangles) and penalties for conclusions. Conclusions revised based mostly on these corrections are dramatically completely different from these drawn from particular person research and meta-analyses. The variations prolong to estimates of impact dimension, confidence intervals, statistical significance, and the magnitude of profit.”
Holy [family blog]!
Vaccines
“2% of youngsters and seven% of adults have gotten the brand new COVID photographs, US knowledge present” [Associated Press]. “One skilled referred to as the charges ‘abysmal.’ The numbers, offered Thursday at a gathering held by the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention, come from a nationwide survey of 1000’s of People, performed two weeks in the past. The information additionally indicated that almost 40% of adults mentioned they most likely or undoubtedly won’t get the shot. An identical share of oldsters mentioned they didn’t plan to vaccinate their kids. Within the late summer time, authorities well being officers made the nation’s COVID-19 vaccination marketing campaign extra just like the annual flu marketing campaign. Officers permitted up to date photographs which have a single goal, an omicron descendant named XBB.1.5. They changed vaccines that focused the unique coronavirus pressure and a a lot earlier omicron model. Final month, the CDC really useful the brand new photographs for everybody 6 months and older.” • In case you take a look at CDC’s variant chart (contemporary at this time) you will note that XBB.1.5 barely registers; it’s final month’s information, or the month earlier than that. I’m not a vax maven, and I’d guess that the up to date shot does apply to the brand new variants (to some extent), however what horrid failure in scientific comumunication this story is, if that’s true. Amidst the bigger failure of seven% takeup. And but there’s Mandy, swanning concerning the nation unmasked, being photographed grinning at folks. (NOTE: I’d guess most individuals consider flu vaccines as nice-to-have, not have-to-have. I actually do. So why CDC thought harnessing it’s Covid effort to the present flu infratructure would do something aside from lower uptake is past me.
“ get the brand new COVID vaccine at no cost, with or with out insurance coverage” [CBS]. “Federal well being authorities are urging People to achieve out to their insurers after experiences of some folks encountering hassle getting their new COVID-19 vaccine shot at no cost. These points have arisen regardless of applications and necessities designed to make the photographs obtainable at no out-of-pocket value for all People. The hurdles are new to this 12 months’s business rollout of COVID-19 vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer [but not, apparently, Novavax], which at the moment are listed for greater than $100 on the non-public market. Earlier in the course of the pandemic, vaccines and boosters had all been paid for by the federal authorities.” 100 bucks is reasonable for a coronary heart assault, so its arduous to account for the uptake points on that foundation. Extra: “‘There have been quite a lot of glitches with billing codes [and] delivery of vaccines,’ Dr. Céline Gounder, CBS Information medical contributor and editor-at-large for public well being at KFF Well being Information, mentioned on ‘CBS Mornings’ Tuesday. Officers say this 12 months’s hiccups in protection of the photographs ought to be momentary, as insurers and vaccinators work to iron out points within the methods that deal with billing for the photographs.” • In fact! The billing codes! BWA-HA-HA-HA-HA!!!! The billing codes that shouldn’t even exist. We had a single payer system. Then we removed it. Then all the things screwed up. Maybe there’s a lesson right here?
Sequelae
‘Tis a thriller!
Staying in Motel.Having a wine with spouse on our mini balcony which overlooks the motels restaurant.A person, his spouse and a pair of children stroll out after which he says to her“I don’t know what it’s currently, however each time I’ve been out for dinner within the final month all the things style like…
— Michael Livingston (@DrMLivingston) October 27, 2023
No latest anecdata on Yankee Candles, nonetheless.
“Serotonin discount in post-acute sequelae of viral an infection” [Cell]. From the Summary: “A number of hypotheses have been formulated to elucidate the etiology of PASC, together with viral persistence, persistent irritation, hypercoagulability, and autonomic dysfunction. Right here, we suggest a mechanism that hyperlinks all 4 hypotheses in a single pathway and offers actionable insights for therapeutic interventions. We discover that PASC are related to serotonin discount. Viral an infection and kind I interferon-driven irritation cut back serotonin by way of three mechanisms: diminished intestinal absorption of the serotonin precursor tryptophan; platelet hyperactivation and thrombocytopenia, which impacts serotonin storage; and enhanced MAO-mediated serotonin turnover. Peripheral serotonin discount, in flip, impedes the exercise of the vagus nerve and thereby impairs hippocampal responses and reminiscence. These findings present a attainable clarification for neurocognitive signs related to viral persistence in Lengthy COVID, which can prolong to different post-viral syndromes.”
“One thing Terrible”
Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” is perhaps a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. Numerous exceptionally nasty sequelae, almost certainly deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we would add mind injury, together with persona modifications therefrom.
Airborne AIDS:
HIV wasn’t found till AFTER folks began getting uncommon illnesses: CMV, Kaposi sarcoma, fungal infections,toxoplasmosis. Most had been initially asymptomatic. Now
strep A, fungal infections, reactivated Shingles. All present Immune deficiency .1/
— Rob Graham (@rcgnrcp) October 27, 2023
And:
C19 hides in macorophages (they eat & kill intruders) & “cloaks” itself, blinding the immune system to its presence. It erases immune reminiscence of different pathogens, which makes U > susceptible 2 catching them (measles does 2). It reactivates Epstein Barr & Varicella. Am I getting by way of?
— Rob Graham (@rcgnrcp) October 27, 2023
For these whose reminiscence of the AIDS disaster is healthier than mine, didn’t AIDS initially current as a [cough] “delicate flu“? And didn’t AIDS even have epithelial results?
* * *
Elite Maleficence
I’m glad to see 60 minutes concentrate on #CovidIsAirborne:
When COVID-19 surfaced in 2020, the medical subject missed one thing, and it value lives.
Airborne viruses can journey a lot additional than initially thought. To curb an infection, we must always have targeted on indoor air methods. @DrLaPook experiences, Sunday. https://t.co/mEN4CWeXMW pic.twitter.com/SKmMZ6EBM2
— 60 Minutes (@60Minutes) October 26, 2023
OTOH, the exoneration of WHO, CDC, the general public well being administration, and two Administrations is somewhat arduous to take.
“How Cleaning soap Works: The Science Behind Handwashing” [Pfizer]. “Whereas there’s nonetheless a lot we don’t perceive about COVID-19, there’s one piece of recommendation that consultants within the well being care neighborhood agree on: washing your palms with cleaning soap and water is among the handiest methods folks can hold from getting sick, and from passing the virus to others.” • To be truthful, right here’s Pfizer on masks, although they received’t use the phrases “airborne” or “aerosol,” sticking to the obfuscatory ”
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Case Knowledge
UPDATE Nice information:
Knowledge replace: we’re shifting again to common weekly updates TODAY! 100+ counties represented. We’ve been offering Covid ww knowledge because the earliest days of the pandemic, & expanded to #flu & #RSV for all websites within the Biobot Community. Extra updates to return! https://t.co/har8c6dLbU
— Biobot Analytics (@BiobotAnalytics) October 27, 2023
I’ll want to take a look at if their protection has modified, however however, nice information (briefly provide, currently).
From BioBot wastewater knowledge, October 27:
Regional knowledge:
Variants
From CDC, October 28:
Lambert right here: High of the leaderboard: HV.1, EG.5 a powerful second, with FL.1.15.1 and XBB.1.1.16.6 trailing. No BA.2.86 (though that has confirmed up in CDC’s airport testing). Nonetheless a Bouillabaisse…
From CDC, October 14:
Lambert right here: I certain hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to amenities lower by directors of unwell intent).
CDC: “As of Might 11, genomic surveillance knowledge shall be reported biweekly, based mostly on the supply of optimistic take a look at specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Appears like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.
Covid Emergency Room Visits
NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, October 21:
Lambert right here: Flattening? Solely per week’s lag, so this can be our greatest present nationwide, present indicator till Verily will get its home so as (and dealing class-centric, since I’d doubt the higher crust goes to the ER).
NOTE “Charts and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not all the pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “similar to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is acceptable for bothMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these folks a lot. Discover additionally that this chart reveals, at the least for its time interval, that Covid will not be seasonal, regardless that CDC is attempting to get us to consider that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the present institutional equipment for injections.
Hospitalization
Bellwether New York Metropolis, knowledge as of October 27:
Leveling at a excessive plateau (which earlier peaks didn’t do). (I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading, though the hospital-centric public well being institution loves it, hospitalization and deaths being the one metrics that matter [snort]).
NOT UPDATED Right here’s a special CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, at the least. October 14:
Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Take a look at Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?
Positivity
NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, October 23:
0.7%. Slight enhance. (It might be attention-grabbing to survey this inhabitants usually; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and massive peer strain, went and bought examined anyhow.)
NOT UPDATED From Cleveland Clinic, October 21:
Lambert right here: Slight enhance. I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is nice*, and we’re starved for knowledge, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is attempting to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.
NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s knowledge, October 9:
Down, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed below are the variants for vacationers:
Sudden massive BA.2.86 look.
Deaths
NOT UPDATED Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, September 27:
Lambert right here: The WHO knowledge is nugatory, so I changed it with the Iowa Covid Knowledge Tracker. Their technique: “These knowledge have been sourced, by way of the API from the CDC: https://knowledge.cdc.gov/NCHS/Situations-Contributing-to-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Stat/hk9y-quqm. This visualization updates on Wednesday evenings. Knowledge are provisional and are adjusted weekly by the CDC.” I can’t appear to get a pop-up that reveals a complete of the three causes (high proper). Readers?
Whole: 1,180,376 – 1,180,288 = 88 (88 * 365 = 32,120 deaths per 12 months, at this time’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “dwelling with” Covid (fairly a bit increased than the minimizers would really like, although they will speak themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I may need to resolve that is what the powers-that-be think about “mission completed” for this explicit tranche of loss of life and illness).
Extra Deaths
The Economist, October 27:
Lambert right here: Primarily based on a machine-learning mannequin.
• Possibly I ought to junk this chart….
That is the way you bury a pandemic
Simply transfer your baseline ahead in order that the brand new regular incorporates the brand new regular degree of endemic loss of life@Connardanonyme1 @arijitchakrav @heavyredaction pic.twitter.com/GV5PFmJg6G
— Gregory Travis. Make colleges #DavosSafe (@greg_travis) October 25, 2023
Stats Watch
Private Earnings: “United States Private Earnings” [Trading Economics]. “Private revenue in america elevated by 0.3% from a month earlier in September 2023, following a 0.4% rise in August and barely under market consensus of 0.4%.”
* * *
At this time’s Worry & Greed Index: 26 Worry (earlier shut: 25 Excessive Worry) [CNN]. One week in the past: 26 (Worry). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Oct 27 at 1:45:02 PM ET.
Gunz
“Maine Democrat requires assault weapons ban after previous opposition” [The Hill]. Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine):
‘Out of concern of this harmful world that we dwell in, in my willpower to guard my very own daughter and spouse in our personal neighborhood, due to a false confidence that our neighborhood was above this and that we may very well be in full management, amongst many different misjudgments, I’ve opposed efforts to ban lethal weapons of warfare, just like the assault rifle used to hold out this crime,’ Golden mentioned at a press convention Thursday.
“The time has now come for me to take duty for this failure, which is why I now name on america Congress to ban assault rifles, just like the one utilized by the sick perpetrator of this mass killing in my hometown of Lewiston, Maine,” he continued. “For the nice of my neighborhood, I’ll work with any colleague to get this performed within the time that I’ve left in Congress.”
“To the folks of Lewiston, my constituents all through the 2nd District, to those that misplaced family members and to those that have been harmed, I express regret and assist as I search to place an finish to those horrible shootings,” he mentioned.
“‘How A lot Blood Is Your Enjoyable Value?’” [The Alantic]. “Folks personal AR-15s as a result of they assume they’re attractive and funky and manly. As a result of they’ve barely any recoil and Military surplus ammo is reasonable. As a result of their buddies have them, so why shouldn’t they? As a result of they’re toys—probably the most harmful toys in America, however toys nonetheless…. And if the previous 24 hours have satisfied me of something, it’s that the one approach issues are ever going to get higher is that if extra gun house owners begin asking our mates the one query that issues: How a lot blood is your enjoyable value?”
Healthcare
“Half of US states had antiviral shortages in 2022-23 flu season” [Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy]. “Over half of US state and territorial public well being preparedness administrators (PHPDs) surveyed mentioned they skilled shortages of flu antiviral medicine comparable to oseltamivir (Tamiflu) in the course of the 2022-23 respiratory virus season, forcing many to show to nationwide or state stockpiles…. ‘It’s attainable that native antiviral shortages had been because of earlier and better than anticipated influenza exercise within the 2022-2023 influenza season in contrast with the 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 influenza seasons, with consequent increased demand for oseltamivir,’ the research authors wrote, including that the outcomes spotlight the necessity to monitor native and nationwide antiviral provide distribution.” • I’m wondering why. ‘Tis a thriller!
Information you should use:
RED FLAG: in case your member of the family will get a strain ulcer in a hospital and the FIRST time it seems within the experiences you get it’s labeled a “reassessment,” that is a pink flag that the hospital is already within the means of altering information to falsely say it was identified at admission.
— Olive Siffleur (@OliveSiffleur) October 27, 2023
Zeitgeist Watch
I meant to pair these two yesterday, however misplaced the second:
Yikes (1):
IDF troopers having time to rave on base and make TikToks? This and genocide is what our tax is funding
pic.twitter.com/DSXNaPstsk
— Sameen
(@littlecherubbb) October 19, 2023
Yikes (2):
Israeli folks on TikTok are MOCKING Palestinians about bombings, their lack of electrical energy and even evaluating them to canine.#Gaza_Genocide #ArmiesToAqsa #Gazabombing Israel Palestine#turkey #Gaza #israelterrorist#iran #Gaza #كتائب_القسامpic.twitter.com/OR1U6Udpvj
— Aisha (@aisha_c10) October 26, 2023
As soon as once more:
I quit. Why can’t they?
However on a extra optimistic word:
Friday morning in Forest Hills, Queens. Looks as if some good previous New Yorkers are pissed. pic.twitter.com/TY7gcV9nak
— NYScanner (@nyscanner) October 27, 2023
Class Warfare
“Mayan Seeds In opposition to Feminist Monoculture” [Counterpunch]. “‘Feminist mates instructed me: Aura, you’re a lady first after which you’re Mayan. And we bought entangled in these discussions that made no sense to me (…) Whoever is prioritizing a degree of the wrestle is talking from one place, they’re doing politics from one place and they’re doing academia from one place. The people who find themselves preventing as a result of they’re girls usually are not being threatened with the risk that their folks may very well be exterminated, that the river may very well be carried away, as a result of they get pleasure from sure secure situations that permit them to say ‘now I combat as a result of I’m a lady’, however that’s not the case for indigenous girls and rural girls.””
Information of the Wired
“Grammar Modifications How We See, an Australian Language Reveals” [Scientific American]. “Area linguists, whose work brings them frequently into contact with the gorgeous variety of the world’s languages, even have lengthy doubted the concept that an individual’s native language has no influence on their thought processes…. The research Levinson described demonstrated a transparent relation between the grammar of a participant’s language—particularly, the best way phrases had been ordered in it—and the best way the individual assessed an image. For instance, with an image of a lady washing a toddler, English audio system, who perceived the girl as the topic, tended to have a look at the girl first…. Tseltal audio system did it in another way. The grammar of Tseltal, spoken in Chiapas, Mexico, obliges audio system to provide a verb first. So when a gaggle from Levinson’s laboratory used eye monitoring to know sentence planning and manufacturing in Tseltal, the researchers discovered that audio system considered the girl and the kid extra evenly, wanting forwards and backwards between the 2. Psycholinguists name this relational encoding… Murrinhpatha [has no word order]. In that preliminary window the Murrinhpatha audio system had been wanting evenly forwards and backwards throughout each characters within the scene, getting a way of all the occasion. Then, as soon as that they had determined which phrase order they had been going to make use of, they began to look primarily on the character they talked about first. At that time an individual who produced a sentence that began with, say, the girl as an alternative of the kid spent extra time wanting on the lady. If as an alternative they produced a sentence that began with the kid, they spent extra time wanting on the youngster. Basically, Nordlinger explains, “what a speaker checked out first in a sustained approach after the preliminary 400-millisecond window was the factor that they talked about first.’” • Bordieu stans: I’d file this beneath “habitus.” Sure?
“A Third of Chocolate Merchandise Are Excessive in Heavy Metals, CR’s Checks Discover” [Consumer Reports]. “As anticipated, darkish candies tended to have increased ranges of heavy metals and milk chocolate decrease. ‘However each product we examined had detectable quantities of lead and cadmium,’ says James E. Rogers, PhD, director and performing head of product security testing at CR. ‘Sixteen of the 48 merchandise had quantities above CR’s ranges of concern for at the least one of many heavy metals—in some instances greater than twice our restrict—however we did discover safer choices in every class of chocolate merchandise.’”
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Contact info for vegetation: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a test if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photos of vegetation. Greens are high quality! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you would like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it firstly of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From TH:
TH writes: “I’ve by no means had a digital camera that might duplicate the vibrancy of pink properly. I’d fear that it’s me doing one thing mistaken, however I discover on television reveals that pink jumps round when anybody is sporting it, so I feel it’s extra possible that wave size isn’t as simply contained as others. That by no means stops me from working as much as a superbly vibrant pink rose although, so right here’s yet one more try gone afoul.”
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Right here is the display that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:
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