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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Extraordinarily affected person readers, I’m afraid brunch acquired totally uncontrolled. So that is fairly skeletal, though I’ll add in as a lot as I can, as quick as I can! Within the meantime, discuss amongst yourselves! –lambert
Chicken Music of the Day
Blue Mockingbird, alongside the canal, Oaxaca, MX (17,2, -96,751), Etla, Oaxaca, Mexico.
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In Case You May Miss…
Trump and the Jack Smith temporary.
Boeing and Longshoremen strikes.
UCLA instruments up.
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Politics
“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in reality a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
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Trump Assassination Makes an attempt (Plural)
“Take him out”?!?
NEW: Crowd begins clapping after ‘The View’ co-host Sunny Hostin seems to recommend that Melania Trump desires to ok*ll Donald Trump.
Hostin says Melania desires to “take [Trump] out” as a result of she “hates” him.
Hostin: “I feel she hates him. So we are able to all agree on that. That is a… pic.twitter.com/99p2xokU8P
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 3, 2024
See Stoller in 2017, “On Mocking Dying Working Class White Individuals.” Liberal Democrats have been wishing demise on their political enemies for a while. Now they yuk it up on daytime tv.
2024
Lower than forty days to go!
Friday’s RCP Ballot Averages:
This week’s crop of flag-of-convenience Democrat celebrities and generals didn’t flip the tide both. Regardless of the micturition and lamentation (very a lot together with my very own) concerning the Trump marketing campaign dogging it when the election is theirs to win (see Gallup, “2024 Election Surroundings Favorable to GOP” on the problems) do be aware the regular deterioration in Kamala’s place within the (aggregated) prime battlegrounds. (After all, we on the surface would possibly as properly be analyzing the entrails of birds after we attempt to predict what’s going to occur to a subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars particularly would possibly as properly be quantum foam, however presumably the marketing campaign professionals have higher information, and have the state of affairs as beneath management as it may be MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!.
“Battleground States Wrap-Up: Race Stays Successfully Tied” [RealClearPolling]. “The most recent spherical of swing state polling signifies that neither Trump nor Harris has made vital positive factors within the swing states. Within the RealClearPolitics Common of the Prime Battleground States, the race is once more a dead-even tie, that means any small modifications within the race over the following month might resolve who wins the presidency. If these RCP Averages maintain till Election Day, the race will probably be extremely shut. Because the RCP No Toss-Up Map exhibits, if the election have been determined by the present averages, Trump would win with 281-257 electoral votes. Nonetheless, the result hinges on Pennsylvania, the place Trump leads by simply 0.1 factors, leaving the election a toss-up with a bit over a month to go till Election Day.” • Then once more–
If I flip all of the leans Crimson or Blue at 270toWin, however give Harris North Carolina (based mostly on Helene miserable Republican turnout in Western North Carolina (“Occasions, expensive boy. Occasions”)), Harris wins, making — to my dismay — Pennsylvania irrelevant:
(Then once more, if Michigan goes crimson, and Trump wins Pennsylvania, Trump wins.)
“Buyers flip to volatility trades to revenue from tight US election” [Financial Times]. “[T]he tight race means buying and selling volatility is seen as a safer wager than making an attempt to guess which shares or sectors will do properly from a victory for former president Donald Trump or vice-president Kamala Harris. ‘Our base case remains to be that that is principally a toss-up, and most shoppers have coalesced across the similar view,’ mentioned Stuart Kaiser, head of US fairness buying and selling technique at Citi. ‘When you discuss to a shopper who thinks it’s 60-40 in favour of Trump, you might speak about proudly owning financial institution shares. When you assume Kamala is extra prone to win, buying and selling a basket is smart,’ he added. ‘However in case you assume it’s 50-50, it will likely be very arduous to commerce directionally, it’s extra of a vol commerce.’ Buying and selling volatility usually requires buyers to make use of extra sophisticated derivatives trades, resulting in a spread of complicated methods with names comparable to ‘straddles’ and ‘collars’ that contain shopping for and promoting a number of derivatives tied to particular person shares or an index such because the S&P 500.”
“October surprises are piling up, however a toss-up race appears impervious to shocks” [CNN]. “The White Home is grappling with three challenges that would threaten the vice chairman’s hopes and provide a gap to the Republican nominee’s narrative of Biden-era negligence. A month earlier than Election Day, the US faces the grave chance of being dragged right into a Center East conflagration; a port employees’ strike might hurt inflation-weary shoppers; and political stress is rising within the fallout of Hurricane Helene. Trump, in the meantime, was hit on Wednesday by the unsealing of a 165-page doc during which particular counsel Jack Smith offers the fullest image of his case within the federal 2020 election interference case. The ex-president has pleaded not responsible, however the submitting re-injected his try and steal the final election into the frantic endgame of a marketing campaign partially formed by Democrats’ claims he poses an existential risk to American democracy. Every state of affairs highlights potential vulnerabilities for each candidates as voters make up their minds. The trio of assessments dealing with Harris comes with potential financial, political and humanitarian penalties if the administration errs. And the brand new scrutiny of Trump’s conduct after the 2020 election might trigger some voters to once more query his health for the Oval Workplace.”
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Kamala (D): “Opinion: Vance is true. Harris and Walz are a risk to Individuals’ free speech” [Jonathan Turley, USA Today]. On “fireplace in a croweded theatre: “[Walz] cited a case during which socialists Charles Schenck and Elizabeth Baer have been arrested and convicted of violating the Espionage Act of 1917. Their ‘crime’ was to cross out flyers in opposition to the navy draft throughout World Warfare I. Schenck and Baer known as on their fellow residents to not ‘undergo intimidation’ and to ‘assert your rights.’ They argued, ‘If you don’t assert and assist your rights, you might be serving to to disclaim or disparage rights which it’s the solemn obligation of all residents and residents of the USA to retain.’ Additionally they described the navy draft as ‘involuntary servitude.’ Holmes used his ‘fireplace in a theater’; line to justify the abusive conviction and incarceration. On the Home listening to, after I was making an attempt to elucidate that the justice later walked away from the road and Schenck was successfully overturned in 1969 in Brandenburg v. Ohio, [Rep. Dan Goldman, D-N.Y.] minimize me off and mentioned, ‘We don’t want a legislation class right here.’ Within the vice presidential debate, Walz confirmed that he and different Democratic leaders most actually do want a category in First Modification legislation.”
Kamala (D): “VP Kamala Harris publicizes 100% reimbursement of native Helene response prices throughout remarks in Augusta” [WABE]. “Vice President Kamala Harris introduced Wednesday that President Joe Biden has authorised Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp’s request for 100% reimbursement of native prices of responding to the aftermath of Hurricane Helene throughout remarks in Augusta, Georgia. Harris mentioned the federal reimbursement will cowl prices for providers like meals, water and shelter offered by native governments, particles elimination and emergency providers.” • In the meantime–
Kamala (D):
NEW: Kamala Harris kindly gives $750 to Individuals who’ve misplaced their houses on account of flooding from Hurricane Helene.
The event comes because the Biden administration is now bragging about offering 67 Starlink satellites to impacted communities.
For reference, the USA… pic.twitter.com/sTM6iix7G9
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 2, 2024
However:
$750 ought to deal with it… pic.twitter.com/qaOlpWIpmp
— @amuse (@amuse) October 3, 2024
And:
Pricey Ukraine, in case you might ship a number of billion {dollars} to the Hurricane Helene victims, that might be nice! pic.twitter.com/d4i4IS15U4
— dianafrancisco (@dianafr55045805) October 3, 2024
I’m not sure that $750 would be the total cost. However, directionally that is right: The empire issues orders of magnitude extra to our ruling class than the home inhabitants (although is in no way the best way a MAGA voter would specific the matter). On the intense facet, I can put the $750 in opposition to the $600 Biden nonetheless owes me, so I come out forward!
Kamala (D): “Tim Walz’s Lengthy Recreation Will Pay Off” [The Nation]. “The basic instance of a slow-fuse debate second that ended up having an influence is Gerald Ford’s well-known gaffe in his 1976 debate with Jimmy Carter. Keeping off critiques that his international coverage was detached to the oppression of the USSR, Ford declared, “I don’t imagine that the Poles think about themselves dominated by the Soviet Union.” Ford’s level was a refined one: that even beneath Soviet rule, Poles had a spirit of resistance. However his wording made it sound like he was flippantly disregarding Soviet imperial domination of Japanese Europe…. Over the following few days, the total import of Ford’s phrases started to sink in, particularly after they have been highlighted time and again in press protection. The truth that Ford, removed from clarifying his remarks, stubbornly dug in solely made issues worse. Ford misplaced essential days in an election and solidified his repute as an out-of-touch oaf…. Tuesday’s debate between JD Vance and Tim Walz is prone to play out with the identical slow-fuse dynamic…. The moment polling completed after the talk exhibits that it was principally a wash…. However even these ballot numbers must be handled as preliminary, as a result of Walz very well performed an extended sport within the debate…. The important thing to Walz’s technique was to not go after Vance straight (since only a few voters care concerning the vice chairman); somewhat, Walz acquired Vance to commit himself to one in all Trump’s most unpopular actions, inciting the January 6 assault on the Capitol (Walz’s damning “non-answer”). The Harris marketing campaign is true to give attention to this alternate. Much more than Gerald Ford’s Poland gaffe, it’s an error that illuminates—in an easy-to-understand means—the whole lot improper with a candidate. Vance’s feedback present not simply his personal ethical cravenness but in addition the best way Trump has bullied all those that work with him into accepting the Large Lie concerning the 2024 marketing campaign. If the Harris marketing campaign and its surrogates maintain pushing this clip, they will bathroom down the Trump marketing campaign for days if not weeks in defending the indefensible.” • Hmm. An outdated debate technique known as sand-bagging, though on this case the blow lands after the talk is over. Needs to be occurring already, with solely 33 days to go.
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Trump (R) (Smith/Chutkan): “One Month Earlier than Election Day, Decide Chutkan Permits Jack Smith to Broadcast His Proof” [Andrew McCarthy, National Review]. “Smith has argued, preposterously, that ‘the general public‘ — by which he means Democrats — has a proper to a speedy trial due to the significance of the Trump instances. On the contrary, the Structure offers solely the defendant a speedy-trial proper, which defendants could and steadily do waive in the event that they want extra time to arrange their protection (additionally a constitutional proper). The general public has an curiosity in a simply trial, not a immediate one — and there may be nothing nearly prosecutors’ submitting 4 indictments in opposition to their occasion’s political rival with the target of making an attempt him earlier than Election Day in a fashion that provides him insufficient time to arrange for trial, not to mention put together for 4 trials…. And as for the asserted significance of the instances, it lies of their political consequence (if any), which is an element that prosecutors and judges are usually not imagined to weigh; there are unambiguous Justice Division guidelines to this impact. For the umpteenth time, this isn’t to reduce Trump’s actions in reference to the 2020 election — the stop-the-steal scheme and the Capitol riot (for which I’ve repeatedly mentioned Trump was rightly impeached, and will have been convicted and disqualified from future workplace; and over which I’ve repeatedly argued that Republicans have been nuts to appoint him, versus a extra nationally viable candidate who, by now, could be ten factors up in opposition to Kamala Harris). It’s to emphasize that isn’t a official law-enforcement or judicial precedence to power a pre-election trial of these expenses.” • On the Smith temporary FWIW:
A little bit of tit for tat:
Final night time, Trump’s attorneys filed a movement asking Chutkan to permit them to file a equally extreme response to Jack Smith’s behemoth of an “immunity movement” and to increase deadline for submitting.
Trump’s response to Smith’s 165-page file is due Oct 17. pic.twitter.com/x4QTHgOWkT
— Julie Kelly 🇺🇸 (@julie_kelly2) October 3, 2024
Case for the protection (although final I checked, Rasmussen was a polling operation, so what’s up with this?
Numerous shrill noise at this time about 2020 election fraud. President Trump says 2020 was “rigged.” Proof collected by official state and court docket case investigations point out that it was. Proof hyperlinks by state are for readers under. Dig in. https://t.co/SchLyucrRV
— Rasmussen Reviews (@Rasmussen_Poll) October 3, 2024
Trump (R) (Smith/Chutkan): “11 damning particulars in Jack Smith’s new temporary within the Trump election case” [Politico]. “A lot of Smith’s temporary centered on Trump’s way of thinking within the weeks main as much as the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021. Smith described a slew of conversations suggesting that the then-president knew his claims of election fraud have been spurious. And Smith laid out proof that Trump’s sole goal was to remain in energy — not, as he and his attorneys have claimed, to train official authority over election integrity.”
Trump (R): “Trump calls Jack Smith submitting ‘pure election interference’ ” [NewsNation]. “Former President Donald Trump known as the unsealing of paperwork in his election interference case by particular counsel Jack Smith a “weaponization of the federal government” throughout an unique interview with NewsNation on Wednesday in Houston, Texas. The Republican nominee was at a personal fundraiser when he instructed NewsNation’s Ali Bradley that Smith is a ‘deranged individual’ following the dismissal of his separate labeled paperwork case in July. ‘This was a weaponization of the federal government … and launched 30 days earlier than the election,’ Trump mentioned of Wednesday’s developments. ‘My ballot numbers have gone up as a substitute of down. It’s pure election interference.’ The interview got here after prosecutors, in a court docket submitting unsealed Wednesday, mentioned Trump “resorted to crimes” after dropping the 2020 election by disregarding the recommendation of his vice chairman and different aides.”
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Trump (R): “Trump floats deporting authorized Haitian migrants dwelling in Ohio” [Axios]. “Trump, talking to NewsNation in Houston, Texas, mentioned he would revoke the Non permanent Protected Standing (TPS) for Haitian immigrants and ‘carry them again to their nation.’ ‘For my part, it’s not authorized. It’s not authorized for anyone to do,’ Trump mentioned. TPS is a federal program that enables migrants from some nations to legally dwell in the USA for a sure interval when the situations of their residence nation are unsafe. Migrants from Haiti, Afghanistan, Ukraine and Venezuela are amongst some nations eligible for this system, requiring individuals to re-register with the Division of Homeland Safety every year. Haitians have been included within the TPS program since January 22, 2010, following a 7.0 magnitude earthquake that killed round 220,000 individuals.” • For some definition of “authorized.” 2010 looks like somewhat a very long time in the past.
Trump (R): “Melania Trump says she pressured Donald to drop hardline immigration coverage” [Guardian]. “Concerning little one separations, she continues [in her book]: ‘Whereas I assist sturdy borders, what was happening on the border was merely unacceptable. I instantly addressed my deep issues with Donald relating to the household separations, emphasizing the trauma it was inflicting these households. As a mom myself, I confused: ‘The federal government shouldn’t be taking youngsters away from their mother and father.’ I communicated with nice readability … ‘This has to cease.’ ‘Donald assured me that he would examine the difficulty, and on 20 June, he introduced the top of the household separation coverage.’ The primary woman’s intervention was reported on the time.”
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Kennedy (I): “Unique: A number of Girls Claiming Romantic Relationships With RFK Jr. Threaten His Standing in Trump Orbit” [Mediate]. “A minimum of three girls are claiming to have had romantic relationships with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in simply the final yr, as he pursued a long-shot bid for the presidency, Mediaite has discovered.” Effectively, “three” is “a number of,” so. Extra: “Kennedy has lengthy been dogged by allegations of infidelity…. In an interview with The New York Solar, a number of days after Mediaite first reached out to Kennedy for remark, he was requested concerning the information of his alleged relationship with Nuzzi. He declined to talk about that particular story, however joked to his host, ‘I’ve so many skeletons in my closet, if they may vote I’d be king of the world.’”
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“Abortion Rights, Elections, Felony Justice, and A lot Extra: The 2024 State Poll Points to Watch” [Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball]. ” This yr, 41 states have a minimum of one measure on the poll for voters to weigh in on, and plenty of have a number of measures. The best-profile subject on the poll this yr—as was the case in 2022 and 2023—is abortion. In all, 10 states have pro-abortion rights measures on the poll, together with such purple and crimson states as Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, and South Dakota. Nebraska additionally has an anti-abortion measure on the poll.” • Monumental roundup of all of the state ballots.
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CA: “Federal decide stops implementation of California misinformation legislation” [Courthouse News]. “A federal decide dominated Wednesday that California’s legislation prohibiting altered election-related communications doesn’t cross constitutional scrutiny and the state can’t implement it. The choice by U.S. District Senior Decide John Mendez to subject a preliminary injunction is a win for Christopher Kohls, identified on-line as “Mr. Reagan,” who argued in his lawsuit that Meeting Invoice 2839 made computer-generated parody unlawful. Assemblymember Gail Pellerin, a Santa Cruz Democrat, wrote the legislation banning digitally manipulated communications, like mailers and video adverts, which are false or deceptive and goal an election employee, elected official, voting gear or individuals working for workplace 4 months earlier than an election. Individuals who obtain such content material would be capable to search damages from the distributor. Kohls, who has some 360,000 YouTube subscribers, calls political satire a elementary First Modification proper. His swimsuit is just like one filed Monday in federal court docket by conservative humor web site The Babylon Bee, which focused two payments, one in all them being AB 2839. ‘We’re gratified that the district court docket agreed with our evaluation that new applied sciences don’t change the rules behind First Modification protections,’ Theodore Frank, one in all Kohls’ attorneys, mentioned in an announcement.”
MI: “Haunted by 2016, some Michigan Democrats fear that Harris stays ill-defined in swing state” [Associated Press]. “Democrats within the state have appeared ascendant since [2016], controlling the governorship, each Senate seats and the state legislature. However some occasion leaders listed below are fearful that development shouldn’t be sufficient to place distance between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Harris’ marketing campaign is banking on the truth that they’ve spent significantly more cash than Trump on adverts and have a stronger voter outreach program. Michigan is a state that Harris virtually actually should win to seize the White Home, and Democrats’ issues are rooted within the concern that polls don’t register all Trump supporters each right here and in different battleground states because the marketing campaign enters a crucial last part.” And the Muslim/Uncommitted vote: “The demise of a Dearborn resident, who Dingell and different group leaders this week mentioned was killed in south Lebanon, has solely ignited anger within the historically Democratic space. Kamel Ahmad Jawad’s demise was confirmed Wednesday by a spokesperson for the White Home’s Nationwide Safety Council…. Harris could overcome divisions inside the Democratic coalition by boosting voter turnout in Wayne County, residence to Detroit, the place low turnout in 2016 contributed to Clinton’s loss. Black group leaders famous that pleasure surged when Harris entered the race in the summertime, and that some momentum continues within the majority-Black metropolis of Eastpointe, simply north of Detroit.” Apparently: “‘Democrats’ monetary assets completely dwarf something that the Republicans have,’ mentioned former Republican Michigan Gov. John Engler. “However Trump is making stops in places which have by no means had presidential visits earlier than, and people are impactful with margins this shut.”
NC: “How Will Hurricane Helene Have an effect on This Wildly Shut Election?” [Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine]. On North Carolina: “Clearly individuals who have misplaced houses or different possessions to excessive winds and (particularly) flooding and/or who lack energy or different necessities for an prolonged time frame are particularly depending on emergency help and could also be grateful if it arrives expeditiously. Past for these instantly affected, the perceived competence and compassion of presidency entities coping with catastrophe aid and restoration efforts can have an effect on how voters assess these in workplace, notably in a high-profile state of affairs like that created by Helene. An American Enterprise Institute examine of [Hurricane] Sandy prompt that the Obama administration’s response to the storm was a significant component within the incumbent’s skill to win late deciders in 2012, topped by this discovering: ‘Totally 15 % of the citizens rated Obama’s hurricane response as crucial issue of their vote.’ On the different finish of the spectrum, the George W. Bush administration’s tardy, confused, and seemingly detached response to the calamity of Hurricane Katrina in August and September of 2005 had an enduringly destructive impact on perceptions of his presidency, although it occurred nowhere near a nationwide election, as Reid Wilson defined… Whereas FEMA and HUD are usually the federal businesses most concerned in catastrophe response and restoration, presidential management in a catastrophe at all times will get consideration, too, and the chance of destructive publicity or graphic shows of unmet wants received’t go away instantly. Bureaucratic backlogs in distributing funds and approving functions for help might trigger voter unhappiness lengthy after the preliminary injury is addressed. The underside line is that barring surprising developments or a serious sequence of screwups within the federal response, Hurricane Helene is prone to mark an enormous second within the lives of individuals in and close to the areas of devastation however in all probability received’t a lot have an effect on their voting conduct. Clearly the campaigns and their allies might want to regulate their get-out-the-vote operations and present some sensitivity to the struggling of individuals whose lives have been turned the other way up. We will solely hope the election itself and its aftermath don’t add violence and trauma to the injury completed.” • These questions could be answered empirically, a minimum of in North Carolina, by reporting on roads being open, precincts open, and folks’s reactions usually. After all, the press must go outdoors Asheville to do that, so solutions appear unlikely.
PA: “Within the presidential election’s most necessary state, the race is a lifeless warmth” [Brookings]. “In 2024, all roads result in Pennsylvania, the most important of the seven swing states. Possibly, the winner of the state will win the election. It’s the state that every candidate can least afford to lose. If Kamala Harris wins Pennsylvania in addition to Michigan and Wisconsin, she could have 270 electoral votes, no matter occurs within the contested southern and southwestern states. If Donald Trump wins Pennsylvania in addition to Georgia and North Carolina, he could have 270 electoral votes, no matter occurs within the southwest or the higher Midwest… Harris’ path to victory in Pennsylvania faces a key hurdle: The Democratic benefit in voter registration has continued the erosion that started proper after the Obama surge of 2008. Since 2020, the Democratic edge has been minimize in half, from 686,000 to simply 343,000, whereas Republican and Unbiased registration has continued to extend. As a share of the whole citizens, Republican registration rose from 39.0% in 2020 to 40.2% this yr whereas the Democratic share fell from 46.5% to 44.1%, lowering the Democratic edge from 7.5 factors to three.9 factors.”
PA: “One other ‘Onerous Tie’ within the Race for President in PA” [RealClearPennsylvania]. “Unbiased voters say that Trump could be higher for his or her private funds by a 50–38% margin. Because the prime subject for all voters stays the economic system, that’s benefit Trump. The subsequent most necessary subject to voters is threats to democracy, adopted by immigration. Pennsylvania is on a razor’s edge in each the presidential and Senate races.” • Fascinating, that #2.
Realignment and Legitimacy
Syndemics
“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
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Covid Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the handle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep secure on the market!
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TABLE 1: Every day Covid Charts
Lambert right here: Finally, the wastewater information seems to be improved. Apparenltly, we dodged a “Again to Faculty” bullet, a minimum of on the nationwide degree. The wastewater drop is strengthened by the positivity numbers as properly.
Wastewater
This week[1] CDC September 23
Final Week[2] CDC (till subsequent week):
Variants [3] CDC September 28
Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC September 21
Hospitalization
New York[5] New York State, information October 1:
Nationwide [6] CDC September 7:
Positivity
Nationwide[7] Walgreens September 30:
Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic September 26:
Vacationers Information
Positivity[9] CDC September 9:
Variants[10] CDC September 9:
Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC September 21:
Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC September 21:
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new at this time; all others are usually not up to date.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with sizzling spots annotated. A lot much less intense!
[2] (CDC) Final week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* highly regarded. XEC has entered the chat.
[4] (ED) Down, however value noting that Emergency Division use is now on a par with the primary wave, in 2020.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Undoubtedly down.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC).
[7] (Walgreens) Large drop continues!
[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.
[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Up, although lagged.
[10] (Vacationers: Variants).
[11] Deaths low, positivity down.
[12] Deaths low, ED down.
Stats Watch
Employment State of affairs: “United States Preliminary Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The variety of individuals claiming unemployment advantages within the US rose by 6,000 from the earlier week to 225,000 on the interval ending September twenty eighth, surpassing market expectations of 220,000 to mark a brand new three-week excessive. The rise in claims stored preliminary counts above the averages recorded earlier this yr, reinforcing the development of a softening labor market and supporting predictions that the Federal Reserve will implement fee cuts in every remaining choice this yr.”
Employment SItuation: “United States Challenger Job Cuts” [Trading Economics]. “US employers introduced 72,821 job cuts in September 2024, barely down from 75,891 in August, however 53% greater than 47,457 a yr earlier. Expertise introduced essentially the most job cuts….”
Manufacturing: “United States Manufacturing facility Orders” [Trading Economics]. “New orders for US manufactured items eased by 0.2% from the earlier month to $590.4 billion in August of 2024, trimming the downwardly revised 4.9% leap within the earlier month, and lacking forecasts that it might have remained unchanged.”
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“Everybody Is Getting the Dockworkers Strike All Incorrect” [Salon]. “Sure, it’s a narrative about modern-day labor anxieties and union leverage—nevertheless it’s additionally about one thing much more complicated than your typical workers-vs.-bosses toss-up…. However the dockworkers of at this time need to be expert, educated, and dexterous sufficient to make sure that the incoming freight vans, the hefty gear, the doubtless hazardous cargo, and the boats themselves function safely and easily all through all steps of the method… That premium on ability and labor, added to the union’s historic energy, makes these dockworkers ‘the highest-paid blue-collar employees within the nation,’ because the American Prospect notes… The primary sticking level, nonetheless, is displacement. The enterprise pursuits in command of the ports wish to embed extra self-propelling know-how inside dock work, whether or not that constitutes automated vans, gates, or cranes. This development has taken off at dozens of ports internationally. Nonetheless, a number of research and real-world examples have proven that full or semi-automation doesn’t truly do a lot to scale back prices or enhance effectivity on the docks, though in sure functions, it may assist to make sure human security. And therein lies one other major battle about tech on the docks: The Maritime Alliance is keen on leaving some leeway for automation, however the dockworkers need completely none. The work could also be grueling, nevertheless it’s among the many few organized blue-collar professions that may provide its staff a strong way of life and dignity.”
Manufacturing: “Boeing Jet Catches Hearth Earlier than Takeoff, Prompting Airport Closure” [Men’s Journal]. “Nearly 200 vacationers have been evacuated from a Boeing jet as partitions of flames spewed from one of many engines, video shared to X (previously Twitter) exhibits. The incident occurred early on Wednesday morning at Italy’s Brindisi Airport shortly earlier than a Boeing 737 operated by Ryanair was scheduled to take off. Smoke crammed the cabin as crews shortly responded and evacuated the jet, however not earlier than one passenger captured footage of the flames licking the airplane’s window.” • Whoops. (Reuters mentions “fumes.”)
Manufacturing: “Boeing’s Frail Funds Give Strikers All of the Energy” [Bloomberg]. “The corporate is in a dire monetary place, burning by means of billions of {dollars} of money and teetering on the edge of getting its credit standing minimize to junk. The corporate has floated the concept of elevating $10 billion or extra by promoting shares, which wouldn’t occur till the strike is resolved. The roughly 33,000 machinists on strike know this. Time is on their facet. … Boeing wants to achieve a take care of its putting employees and crank up plane manufacturing. The backlog of plane orders is piling up. That is money and monetary aid simply ready to be unlocked. Little question a hefty pay increase will squeeze future revenue margins, nevertheless it’s unlikely the corporate, being in comparable to weakened state, can outlast the willpower of its employees…. It’s time for brand spanking new Chief Govt Officer Kelly Ortberg to settle this strike and start to restore labor relations. With out buy-in from its workforce, the corporate can’t start to vary a factory-floor tradition that had eroded on security and high quality to the purpose the place the Federal Aviation Administration needed to intervene.”
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Immediately’s Concern & Greed Index: 67 Greed (earlier shut: 68 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 68 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Oct 3 at 1:53:13 PM ET.
Zeitgeist Watch
Absolutely not?
buddy noticed this man on the apps lol pic.twitter.com/NuwYYp4CNv
— mindy🌷 (@mindyisser) October 3, 2024
Gallery
For Alma-Tadema stans, thread value studying in full:
This can be a 1436 portray by Flemish grasp Jan van Eyck, of Mary, Jesus, and saints.
You would possibly assume it is simply an abnormal devotional portray — assume once more… pic.twitter.com/lgcGoYNnu9
— Tradition Critic (@Culture_Crit) October 2, 2024
Groves of Academe
“College students and school object to UCLA’s buy of extra navy {hardware}” [Los Angeles Public Press]. “The College of California Regents authorised the acquisition of navy gear at September’s UC Regents assembly at UCLA. The unanimous vote came about behind closed doorways whereas the UCLA Police Division (UCPD), wearing riot gear, pressured those that got here to present public remark outdoors of the constructing. The authorised purchases embody 3,000 rounds of pepper munitions, 500 rounds of 40mm influence munitions, 12 drones, and 9 less-lethal launchers throughout six College of California campuses.” • Oh.
Information of the Wired
No:
Name me old style, however I believed we’d just about sorted the design of the cup. pic.twitter.com/zP1tmG9Mtd
— Henry Moeran (@henrymoeranBBC) October 2, 2024
Make that holder coin-operated, and also you’ve acquired a rentier’s cup.
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Contact info for crops: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a test if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photographs of crops. Greens are tremendous! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you need your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it firstly of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From TH:
TH writes: “That is a type of that may drive you loopy. Vertical traces are right and even the horizontal railing is sweet, however the breakwater simply above it offers an phantasm of off-kilterness (phrase?).” Readers?
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Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the annual NC fundraiser. Materials right here is Lambert’s, and doesn’t specific the views of the Bare Capitalism website. When you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see wherever else, please don’t hesitate to precise your appreciation in tangible kind. Keep in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 3 or 4 days I get fearful. Extra tangibly, a relentless trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:
Right here is the display screen that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:
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