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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Chicken Music of the Day
Aztec Thrush, Miahuatlán, Oaxaca, Mexico. “Audio recording lifer 🙁 Didn’t discover this within the subject, I used to be distracted with recording, after which with flyover Hooded Grosbeak flock.” The standard ranking of this recording is low, presumably due to the street (?) noise within the background, however I don’t thoughts seems like that; I just like the sense of an actual setting.
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Politics
“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in truth a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
The Constitutional Order
“The place efforts to disqualify Trump from 2024 poll stand” [Axios]. Fairly a round-up:
By the numbers: Six circumstances associated to the clause have already been dismissed, together with in Minnesota, New Hampshire, two in Michigan and one other two in Florida, per authorized evaluation by nonprofit publication Lawfare.
Six circumstances have been voluntarily withdrawn in Idaho, Utah, Oklahoma, Maine, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.
At the very least 19 extra stay pending, together with two in New York, in Texas, Nevada, Arizona, Alaska, Montana, New Mexico, Colorado, Kansas, Wisconsin, Vermont, Massachusetts, Virginia, South Carolina, West Virginia, Delaware, Connecticut and New Jersey.I’m assuming most of those are frivolous fits introduced by people…
Biden Administration
Al Shifa hospital doesn’t appear to have been a propaganda win:
Mossad and CIA intelligence failed once more
Israel admits there are not any tunnels getting used below Al Shifa hospital.
They’re all concreted up.
Weeks have handed and the Israelis have but to discover a single tunnel or hostage. pic.twitter.com/oA2j9TBoIb
— Iran Observer (@IranObserver0) November 16, 2023
And possibly was by no means going to be:
Israel claims Al Shifa hospital hides a command heart for Hamas.Norwegian physician Mads Gilbert, who has labored at Al-Shifa, Gaza for 16 years says there’s “no proof in any respect” for that: “If it was a army command heart, I might not work there.” pic.twitter.com/KC8Gkuki6R
— Faheem (@stoppression) November 11, 2023
I stay baffled on the idea that capturing a “command heart” may have strategic significance. Outdated-timers will bear in mind “captured enemy paperwork” from Vietnam. We captured loads of “command facilities” shedding that warfare, too!
Fairly a haul:
Shifa hospital#IsraelFightsTerror pic.twitter.com/Cz7IQlPfeR
— Mossad Commentary (@MOSSADil) November 16, 2023
2024
Lower than a yr to go!
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“Trump’s new Latino technique casts him as sufferer of socialists” [Axios]. “Former President Trump’s group is attempting to construct on the GOP’s current positive aspects amongst Latinos with a technique in Florida that’s geared toward voters of Cuban, Venezuelan and Colombian descent — and that casts Trump as a sufferer of overzealous socialists. Trump’s efforts to liken his authorized woes and his clashes with Democrats to the difficulties many Latin People have confronted below socialist and authoritarian rule symbolize a flip in his push to attraction to the fastest-growing phase of the U.S. voters. This technique was a giant motive why Trump selected Hialeah, Fla., as the positioning of his counter-programming rally throughout final week’s Republican presidential debate. Hialeah is greater than 95% Hispanic, and the overwhelming majority of these residents are Cuban People, a conservative voters that identifies extra with Republicans than many different Latino teams. On the rally, Trump portrayed his ‘persecution’ on felony costs — and what he referred to as his resistance to communism — as just like what many Cuban People and their households skilled through the communist regime of Fidel Castro… It’s unclear whether or not Trump’s “sufferer” technique that performs effectively in Florida will resonate with Mexican People and different Latinos whose households’ backgrounds don’t contain fleeing authoritarian leaders.”
“Trump’s violent speak exhibits indicators of taking on Congress” [The Hill]. “[Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.)] noticed that Trump acknowledged earlier than most different politicians the anger brewing in American society and seized on it for political acquire, however he warned it’s a harmful path for the nation’s leaders. ‘I don’t know if he modified [norms] or just responded to what he noticed from different individuals. I believe he sensed that the American individuals have been permitting this to go on, and he’s taken benefit of it, however it’s not the course that I believe our nation ought to go,’ he stated. ‘I actually do consider that the Founding Fathers needed us to get collectively right here in Washington, work out our variations, and they don’t count on us to be caning each other,’ he added.” • So I’m not the one one with the caning of Sumner in thoughts…
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“DeSantis targets China, however takes money from Chinese language-backed firm” [Orlando Sentinel]. “Gov. Ron DeSantis has gone on the offensive towards Chinese language affect in current months, signing a invoice limiting what land Chinese language corporations and residents should purchase in Florida and suspending state scholarships to 4 Florida faculties over alleged hyperlinks to China. However this August he took a examine for greater than $11,000 from the CEO of a Tampa refrigerant firm with direct backing from China. It was simply the most recent in years of monetary assist that the corporate, iGas USA, has given DeSantis. Final yr DeSantis held a rally on the Chinese language-backed refrigerant firm’s Tampa advanced. The rally and contributions are a part of a current wave of political giving by iGas and entities related to its CEO, Xianbin ‘Ben’ Meng. All instructed, the businesses and workers have made greater than $1.1 million in federal and state political contributions previously 5 years, with 98% of the cash going to Republican candidates and committees. The largest share of that cash, $340,000, went to DeSantis and committees affiliated with him.” • Oh.
* * *
“Biden Is Tearing His Personal Coalition Aside” [The Nation]. “Joe Biden hasn’t gotten America right into a land warfare in Asia but, however in each different approach he’s repeating LBJ’s mistake of pondering weapons and butter go collectively. By means of his infrastructure invoice and the Inflation Discount Act, Biden has admirably returned big-ticket social spending to the White Home agenda. However he has been equally involved to reassert American hegemony, financing the warfare in Ukraine, promising extra money to Israel because it carries out its bombing of Gaza, and pivoting towards a great-power competitors with China that might simply turn into a brand new chilly warfare. Just like the Chilly Struggle liberals, Biden has embraced a army Keynesianism that sees weapons and butter as mutually self-supporting. In late October, Politico reported, ‘The White Home has been quietly urging lawmakers in each events to promote the warfare efforts overseas as a possible financial growth at dwelling. Aides have been distributing speaking factors to Democrats and Republicans who’ve been supportive of continued efforts to fund Ukraine’s resistance to make the case that doing so is sweet for American jobs.’ Nationwide safety adviser Jake Sullivan has been a serious advocate of this new army Keynesianism.” However: “like LBJ earlier than him, Biden will discover {that a} guns-and-butter consensus is brittle and satisfies nobody. Infinite warfare isn’t widespread. Voters are already souring on the thought of sending extra support to Ukraine, and polls present majority assist for a cease-fire in Gaza…. By attempting to hammer out a guns-and-butter consensus that only a few exterior the elite assist, Biden is tearing aside each his personal coalition and American society.”
“Has Biden’s electoral coalition fractured?” [The Hill]. “In accordance with the ballot, 22 p.c of Black voters in these battleground states say they’d vote for Donald Trump over Joe Biden in subsequent yr’s presidential election…. No Democratic presidential candidate because the civil rights period has earned lower than 80 p.c of the Black vote…. Due to his assist for Israel, President Biden may lose Muslim votes, particularly in Michigan, one of many key battleground states. He may lose progressive voters typically and younger voters specifically — two extra key elements within the Democratic coalition. He would possibly even lose assist of one other bloc that traditionally has voted (overwhelming) for Democratic presidents — Jewish voters, who consider that there are parts within the Democratic Get together which might be anti-Israel, anti-Jewish and even pro-Hamas…. Lastly, there’s one other quantity within the ballot that tells us lots about what People are pondering. 56 p.c of registered voters in these six battleground states have both a considerably or very unfavorable view of Joe Biden. As for Donald Trump: He is available in with a 57 p.c unfavorable quantity. So if it’s a Trump vs. Biden rematch, the one factor we all know with some certainty is that voters want they’d each simply go away.”
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“Joe Manchin says he ‘completely’ would contemplate operating for president in 2024: Senator received’t rule out potential third-party bid that might dent Biden’s possibilities” [Daily Mail]. “Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin stated Wednesday he would ‘completely’ contemplate a presidential run, giving himself till round Tremendous Tuesday to determine whether or not to launch a third-party bid for the White Home…. As for Biden, he instructed [NBC’s Meet the Press host Kristen Welker], ‘I’m afraid that Joe Biden’s been pushed too far to the left.’ ‘Can he come again? We’ll see,’ the senator added. ‘However the backside line is that’s not the Joe Biden that we thought was being elected, to go that far left.’”
“‘No Labels’ chief says group launching 2024 candidate committee: Manchin deserves ‘critical consideration’” [FOX]. “Former Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman — who served as each a Democrat and Unbiased — stated Wednesday if 2024 turns into a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, he may see Manchin as a possible candidate for the group to unite round. Nevertheless, he underlined there isn’t a assure ‘No Labels’ will certainly subject a candidate. ‘Joe Manchin is a buddy of mine. He’s an amazing centrist. He actually has walked the stroll and labored on bipartisan problem-solving in Congress,’ stated Lieberman, who was additionally the 2000 presidential running-mate for Al Gore.” • What horrible political judgment Gore had, to make certain. Placing Lieberman on the nationwide stage.
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Centrism:
RFK Jr says the quiet half out loud:
Israel is a stronghold for us…It is like having an plane provider within the Center East…If Israel disappears, Russia, China and the BRICS+ nations will management 90% of the world’s oil, and this will likely be a catastrophe.pic.twitter.com/OWmu2peyFF
— Danny Haiphong (@SpiritofHo) November 8, 2023
Merch:
Break the duopoly in fashion! Get your official Cornel West 2024 marketing campaign merch at https://t.co/lx0HUKP1I9#CornelWest2024 pic.twitter.com/T7q5AqO6fM
— Cornel West (@CornelWest) November 15, 2023
I just like the look!
PMC gatekeeping, as common:
.@abbydphillip spoke to @AndrewYang on CNN tonight about Biden’s Democratic challengers Dean Phillips and …Manchin (huh?) …and Newsom (huh?)
There IS one other precise Democratic candidate right here – polling increased than Phillips, at 16% amongst Democratic leaning voters on the…
— Marianne Williamson (@marwilliamson) November 11, 2023
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“Governor JB Pritzker outlines plans for migrant consumption heart, funds for shelter” [ABC7]. “Governor JB Pritzker laying out new emergency steps as hundreds of migrants await shelter in Chicago…. The governor saying the coverage and the funding Thursday, saying they needed to step in an present this help with temperatures anticipated to plummet subsequent week. ‘To get individuals off of the streets as we head into winter, the state of Illinois will make investments a further $160 million through the Division of Human Providers, particularly to deal with these bottlenecks,’ Governor Pritzker stated. A part of the cash, $30 million will likely be to arrange an consumption heart for when the migrants first arrive in Chicago to both assist them discover a place to remain, or get them to their subsequent vacation spot in one other metropolis.” And: “RELATED: Chicago migrants could have 60-day restrict to shelter stays, Mayor Johnson publicizes.”
Democrats en Déshabillé
Affected person readers, plainly individuals are truly studying the back-dated put up! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are lots of updates. So I must try this. –lambert
I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Get together (“the Democrat Get together is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated put up, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “stay” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Get together is, in truth, a tough downside. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:
The Democrat Get together is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). It follows that the Democrat Get together is as “unreformable” because the PMC is unreformable; if the Democrat Get together didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. If the Democrat Get together fails to manipulate, that’s as a result of the PMC lacks the potential to manipulate. (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working elements of the Get together reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Get together (ka-ching, however not totally) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.
Observe, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.
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“The Squad Is About to Struggle for Its Political Life” [Slate]. “One of many greatest, bitterest, and most costly political battles of the 2024 election cycle has emerged: The American Israel Public Affairs Committee, some of the highly effective, best-funded affect operations in Washington, is planning to go all out to knock the famed “Squad”—the small group of extremely seen and widespread progressive legislators of shade, most of them girls—out of workplace…. Critically, all of them reject big-money backing, surviving on simply grassroots assist and small-dollar fundraising… Within the 2022 midterms, the Israel foyer turned the biggest single-issue exterior spender in Democratic primaries, pouring in practically $30 million through the tremendous PAC the United Democracy Mission, and hundreds of thousands extra through the Democratic Majority for Israel PAC. It was an astronomical amount of cash, largely directed at knocking progressives out of the primaries, largely in open and redrawn seats. Regardless of there being fewer vacancies in 2024, that cash determine is predicted to a minimum of triple.” It might be helpful to have a proof of why AIPAC’s marketing campaign isn’t election interference by a overseas energy. Extra: “To this point, Home Democratic management has been quiet about all this [lol]. Minority Chief Hakeem Jeffries—who took extra money from the Israel foyer in 2022 than from some other group and is featured prominently on the lobbying group’s web site (alongside Home Republican management)—hasn’t tried to dissuade the primarying of those progressive Democratic incumbents. He may simply publicly disavow such spending and make it clear to candidates that accepting such assist is towards caucus coverage; in 2019, Home Democrats made it an official coverage to blacklist any Democratic advisor or political group who aided a progressive challenger towards a sitting Democratic incumbent forward of the 2020 elections. However to date Jeffries has solely managed to say: ‘Outdoors teams are gonna do what exterior teams are gonna do. I believe Home Democrats are going to proceed to assist one another.’” • Odd. Jeffries appears to suppose the Democrat Get together is a few form of cash laundering operation.
Realignment and Legitimacy
“The panel charged with recommending modifications to Massachusetts’s seal and motto simply disbanded. It didn’t supply particular substitutes for both.” [Boston Globe]. • Amusing portrait of a very dysfunctional committee.
#COVID19
“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the deal with given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater experiences); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep secure on the market!
* * *
Covid is Airborne
Dentists v. docs:
the 4 well being care workplaces I visited just lately for a medical challenge did the minimal required, no masks necessities or reminders to do something for covid. Air flow/filtration was no matter was a part of the constructing or medical gear.
— Dr James Morris (@James___Morris) November 15, 2023
I believe the distinction is that dentistry — cleansing, drilling, extracting — as an aerosol-generating process, and so dentists are aerosol-conscious. In contrast, docs are used to pondering of aerosols as being generated in working theatres, and as merely produced by respiration, speaking, shouting, and many others. There’s little skilled excuse for this, in fact, however “one funeral at a time.”
“What are the issues with hermetic properties?” [National Post]. “Nevertheless, there are air-purification programs that neutralize the air utilizing OH radicals. These gadgets present air purification and odour elimination across the clock — protecting your indoor air clear and contemporary.” • No no no no no:
3/ A few of these by-products are identified to be dangerous. Some are suspected to be dangerous based mostly on their chemical construction and similarities to chemical substances we all know could be dangerous, and we would not have good tox knowledge for almost all (these might or is probably not significantly dangerous).
— Richard Corsi, PhD, PE (Texas) (@CorsIAQ) November 16, 2023
Maskstravaganza
Since masks seem like medical home equipment, it’s no shock individuals affiliate them with sickness, not security, not to mention collective security:
MaskLab simply retains delivering with these attractive designs.
In the meantime, 3M is simply completely giving up on having any position in fascinated by the way forward for masks aesthetics, sigh.
P.S. If anybody wants a MaskLab code for 15% off, https://t.co/xHKYni2yIXhttps://t.co/fiBPn87mj1 pic.twitter.com/x0nz4AVokd
— Dr Rebecca Richardson (@mavisclare) November 15, 2023
“One thing Terrible”
Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” is perhaps a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. A lot of exceptionally nasty sequelae, almost certainly deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we would add mind injury, together with persona modifications therefrom.
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* * *
Lambert right here: A lot of indicators up, beginning with wastewater. (The one I fear about essentially the most is ER visits, since I believe that knowledge is difficult to sport, and who needs to go to the ER, anyhow?) I believe it’s time to ship the kinfolk these clippings you saved on mind injury (additionally, in fact, the 2022 clippings: right here, right here. And the 2020 one).
Case Knowledge
NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater knowledge, November 13:
Lambert right here: Instances up, simply in time for Thanksgiving (and tinfoil hat time: That is the, er, inflection level CDC was attempting to hide once they gave the contract to Verily and didn’t guarantee a seamless transition).
Regional knowledge:
In every single place!
Variants
NOT UPDATED From CDC, November 11:
Lambert right here: High of the leaderboard: HV.1, EG.5 a powerful second, with FL.1.15.1 and XBB.1.1.16.6 trailing. No BA.2.86 (though that has confirmed up in CDC’s airport testing). Nonetheless a Bouillabaisse…
From CDC, October 28:
Lambert right here: I positive hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to amenities reduce by directors of unwell intent).
CDC: “As of Could 11, genomic surveillance knowledge will likely be reported biweekly, based mostly on the provision of optimistic take a look at specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice every week; semiweekly.” Appears to be like like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.
Covid Emergency Room Visits
NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, November 11:
Lambert right here: Slight will increase in some age teams, conforming to wastewater knowledge. Solely every week’s lag, so this can be our greatest present nationwide, present indicator till Verily will get its home so as (and dealing class-centric, since I might doubt the higher crust goes to the ER).
NOTE “Charts and knowledge offered by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous yr, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not the complete pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “identical to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is suitable for bothMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these individuals a lot. Discover additionally that this chart exhibits, a minimum of for its time interval, that Covid just isn’t seasonal, despite the fact that CDC is attempting to get us to consider that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the present institutional equipment for injections.
Hospitalization
Bellwether New York Metropolis, knowledge as of November 15:
Decline flattens. (I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading, though the hospital-centric public well being institution loves it, hospitalization and deaths being the one metrics that matter [snort]).
NOT UPDATED Right here’s a unique CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, a minimum of. November 4:
Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and knowledge offered by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?
Positivity
NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, November 13:
-1.4%. However bouncing round. (It might be attention-grabbing to survey this inhabitants typically; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and large peer stress, went and bought examined anyhow.)
NOT UPDATED From Cleveland Clinic, November 11:
Lambert right here: Enhance (with backward revision; guess they thought it was over). I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is sweet*, and we’re starved for knowledge, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is attempting to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.
From CDC, traveler’s knowledge, October 29:
Down, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed below are the variants for vacationers, nonetheless from October 23:
Sudden massive BA.2.86 look. This variant chart has not been up to date, which makes me surprise if CDC is gaming the info, and BA.2.86 is worse than we expect.
Deaths
Complete: 1,182,163 – 1,181,963 = 200 (200 * 365 = 73,000 deaths per yr, immediately’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “dwelling with” Covid (fairly a bit increased than the minimizers would really like, although they will speak themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I may need to determine that is what the powers-that-be contemplate “mission achieved” for this explicit tranche of dying and illness).
Extra Deaths
The Economist, November 16:
Lambert right here: Primarily based on a machine-learning mannequin.
Stats Watch
Employment State of affairs: “United States Preliminary Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The variety of People submitting for unemployment advantages rose by 13,000 to 231,000 on the week ending November eleventh, the best in practically three months, and effectively above market expectations of 220,000. Within the meantime, persevering with claims rose by 18,000 to 1,865,000 within the earlier week, the best in practically two years and sharply above market forecasts of 1,847,000, suggesting that jobseekers are having a tougher time find appropriate employment.”
Manufacturing: “United States Industrial Manufacturing” [Trading Economics]. “US industrial manufacturing declined by 0.7% year-on-year in October 2023, following a revised 0.2% contraction within the earlier month.”
Manufacturing: “United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index within the US elevated 3.1 factors however remained adverse at -5.9 in November 2023, higher than market forecasts of -9. That is the index’s sixteenth adverse studying previously 18 months.”
Manufacturing: “United States Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Kansas Metropolis Fed’s Manufacturing Manufacturing index was at -3 in November of 2023, bettering from -8 within the earlier month however sustaining the adverse territory for the third consecutive interval. Each sturdy items and nondurable items manufacturing indices ticked up barely within the interval, though the previous remained under zero.”
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Tech: “Mother and pop retailers are chopping software program spending, creating jitters on Wall Avenue” [CNBC]. “Analysts are seeing a pullback in software program spending by eating places, retailers, and different native and regional companies, that are responding to weaker shopper tendencies…. Over the previous 20 years, small companies have accounted for 40% of U.S. gross home product, in line with the Chamber of Commerce. In addition they make use of 46% of the American workforce…. Buyers throughout the sector try to determine if SMB spending has bottomed or if companies are nonetheless searching for alternatives to slim down their software program portfolio ought to the financial image dampen additional.”
Tech: “Unhealthy Bots Account for 73% of Web Visitors: Evaluation” [Security Week]. “The highest 5 classes of Unhealthy Bot assaults are pretend account creation, account takeovers, scraping, account administration, and in-product abuse. These haven’t modified from Q2, apart from in-product abuse changing card testing. The largest will increase in assaults from Q2 to Q3 are SMS toll fraud (up 2,141%), account administration (up 160%), and faux account creation (up 23%). The highest 5 focused industries are know-how (Unhealthy Bots comprise 76% of its web site visitors); gaming (29% of site visitors); social media (46%), e-commerce (65%), and monetary companies (45%). If a bot fails in its objective, there’s a rising tendency for the criminals to change to human operated fraud farms. Arkose estimates there have been greater than 3 billion fraud farm assaults in H1 2023…. The expansion within the prevalence of Unhealthy Bots is more likely to enhance for 2 causes: the arrival and basic availability of synthetic intelligence (primarily gen-AI), and the rising enterprise professionalism of the legal underworld with new crime-as-a-service (CaaS) choices.” Oh. Extra: “Crime-as-a-service permits wannabe criminals who might have the intent however not the abilities to interact in cybercrime. “The huge rise of CaaS has fully modified the economics for adversaries” continued Gosschalk. ‘It’s less expensive to assault corporations and the assaults are simply higher as a result of it’s a dev store that’s doing the assaults as an alternative of simply particular person cybercriminals.’ The persevering with enhance within the quantity of Unhealthy Bots suggests they continue to be worthwhile for the criminals. The arrival of gen-AI will enhance the efficiency of Unhealthy Bots, whereas the expansion of CaaS will enhance the variety of Unhealthy Bot operators; so, it can worsen. The one resolution is Unhealthy Bot detection and mitigation to restrict the entry of the bots to their human or system targets.” • Thanks, Silicon Valley. “Crime as a Service” looks like a William Gibson theme, although amazingly he didn’t invent the phrase. Arduous to consider the mind geniuses who invented AI didn’t see this coming…. However possibly not!
Tech: “Europe’s hidden safety disaster” [Irish Council for Civil Liberties]. “Our investigation highlights a widespread commerce in knowledge about delicate European personnel and leaders that exposes them to blackmail, hacking and compromise, and undermines the safety of their organisations and establishments. These knowledge circulate from Actual-Time Bidding (RTB), an promoting know-how that’s energetic on virtually all web sites and apps. RTB entails the broadcasting of delicate knowledge about individuals utilizing these web sites and apps to massive numbers of different entities, with out safety measures to guard the info. This happens billions of instances a day. Our examination of tens of hundreds of pages of RTB knowledge reveals that EU army personnel and political determination makers are focused utilizing RTB. This report additionally reveals that Google and different RTB companies ship RTB knowledge about individuals within the U.S. to Russia and China, the place nationwide legal guidelines allow safety companies to entry the info. RTB knowledge are additionally broadcast broadly throughout the EU in a free-for-all, which implies that overseas and non-state actors can not directly get hold of them, too. RTB knowledge usually embrace location knowledge or time-stamps or different identifiers that make it comparatively straightforward for dangerous actors to hyperlink them to particular people. International states and non-state actors can use RTB to spy on course people’ monetary issues, psychological state, and compromising intimate secrets and techniques. Even when goal people use safe gadgets, knowledge about them will nonetheless circulate through RTB from private gadgets, their pals, household, and compromising private contacts.” • Thanks, Silicon Valley.
Tech: Love the “make actual” button:
I believe I must go lie down. https://t.co/WxScGQTEKZ pic.twitter.com/wT6a7q6juZ
— Kevin Cannon (@multikev) November 15, 2023
For some definition of “actual”…..
* * *
Immediately’s Concern & Greed Index: 55 Impartial (earlier shut: 53 Impartial) [CNN]. One week in the past: 38 (Concern). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Nov 16 at 12:28:03 PM ET. Primarily based on what? Arms dealing?
The Gallery
‘Tis the season:
Ice Floes on the Seine at Bougival https://t.co/OV32xFEcqQ pic.twitter.com/QbhFNuQz8W
— 𝘽𝙖𝙣𝙜𝙠𝙤𝙠𝙇𝙞𝙛𝙚 (@BangkokLife) November 16, 2023
I bear in mind a portray of snow by Pisarro on the Boston MFA that captured the glittery whiteness of contemporary snow on crisp, sunny day. Whiteness, a minimum of from a couple of ft away; shut up, the snow was tiny dots of various brilliant colours: pink, blue, yellow…
Class Warfare
“UAW-Basic Motors contract has sufficient votes for ratification” [Politico]. “United Auto Staff members at Basic Motors had sufficient votes Thursday to ratify their contract with the corporate, in line with a tracker maintained by the union, checking the primary of three bins wanted to formally finish the strike towards the Detroit automakers…. Votes at Ford and Stellantis have been nonetheless ongoing as ofThursday morning.
“Starbucks staff strike at 200 union shops on Crimson Cup Day” [Axios]. • Good. Additionally good:
Teamsters do not cross picket traces! Because of them not crossing our picket to ship tomorrow’s provides, any scabs at our Starbucks tomorrow morning will not have milk, cups, sandwiches, or dignity https://t.co/7ubgnyZchE pic.twitter.com/1X6QmxPNiO
— Sara Mughal (@_SaraMughal) November 16, 2023
Information of the Wired
“The Reality is At all times Fabricated from Particulars” [Raptitude]. “When you have been instructed to attract a leaf, you would possibly draw a inexperienced, vaguely eye-shaped factor with a stem. However once you examine an actual leaf, say an elm leaf, it’s bought far more occurring than that drawing. It has rounded serrations alongside its edges, and the tip of every serration is the top of a raised vein, which runs from the stem within the center. Tiny ripples span the channels between the veins, and small capillaries divide every phase into little “counties” with irregular borders. I may go on for pages….. The Info Age is clearly pushing us in direction of low-res conclusions on questions that warrant deep, lengthy, high-res consideration. Think about our poor hominid brains, attempting to kind a coherent worldview out of monetized feeds fabricated from low-resolution takes on essentially the most advanced subjects possible — financial programs, local weather, illness, race, intercourse and gender. Unsurprisingly, amidst the unbelievable quantity of knowledge coming at us, there’s been a surge in low-res, ideologically-driven views: the world is like this, these individuals are like that, X is sweet, Y is dangerous, A causes B. Not difficult, bro…. …. I can’t assist however suppose we’d profit from a aware intention to see issues when it comes to their particulars once more, dialing up the default decision at which we interact with each our experiences and our concepts. The world exists in infinite decision, and that’s what we’re constructed for. The reality is fabricated from particulars, and so they go all the way in which down. Any concepts about it simply relaxation on the highest.” • Clearly a congenial set of concepts for me. Nicely value a learn!
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Contact data for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a examine in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photographs of crops. Greens are fantastic! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! In order for you your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it firstly of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From griffen:
griffen writes: “I dont have a bucket listing however in late September visited parks in SD, and right here at Devils Tower in Wyoming. Fairly unbelievable go to, hikes.”
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Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the annual NC fundraiser. So in case you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see wherever else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible kind. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get frightened. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I consider that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:
Right here is the display that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:
When you hate PayPal, you may electronic mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I provides you with instructions on the way to ship a examine. Thanks!
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