Israel, Hamas at critical juncture in negotiations for hostage deal – POLITICO

TEL AVIV — Israeli officers have gotten guardedly optimistic {that a} hostage cope with Hamas will be reached, however any settlement is prone to be interim and restricted.

A deal is prone to contain just some dozen captive Israeli youngsters and aged, amongst them some twin nationals, together with Individuals, based on two Israeli officers, who had been granted anonymity to debate the delicate matter of hostages.

The formalizing of humanitarian pauses in northern Gaza has helped progress the talks through the Qataris and Egyptians, the 2 officers acknowledged. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this week agreed to place in place four-hour each day humanitarian pauses in its bombings in Gaza after virtually two weeks of stress from the Biden administration.

However the two officers cautioned that there are nonetheless a number of excellent points that would simply derail a deal, together with the Hamas militants withholding a whole checklist of the hostages being held within the Gaza Strip. The Hamas army management can also be demanding a cease-fire, or an extended humanitarian pause of as a lot as per week, the Israeli officers mentioned.

David Meidan, a former Mossad intelligence officer, who served for a time as Benjamin Netanyahu’s coordinator on hostage points, believes that “one thing is shifting below the floor” relating to the hostages. The humanitarian pauses that Netanyahu has agreed to “may result in some constructive steps,” Meidan mentioned in an unique interview with POLITICO.

Greater than a decade in the past, Meidan negotiated the deal to safe the discharge of Gilad Shalit, a younger Israeli soldier captured by Hamas in 2006, in trade for 1,027 Palestinian prisoners. Meidan, who has been counseling the households of the Israeli hostages, has been consulted by U.S. diplomats and Netanyahu’s newly appointed hostage envoy, Gal Hirsch.

Meidan suggested Hirsch and the Individuals to not waste time juggling completely different channels of communication and to focus their efforts on figuring out mediators in a position to attain the important thing decision-makers — particularly the Hamas army leaders in Gaza. He mentioned he informed them that “the political leaders outdoors Gaza in Qatar will not be so related.” They’ll serve simply as go-betweens for messages to the Hamas army leaders, Meidan defined.

The important thing gamers

“After I led negotiations 12 years in the past, I didn’t perceive at first precisely who the important thing gamers had been. Lastly, I understood that the important thing individual on the time was Ahmed Jabari,” Meidan mentioned.

Jabari in 2006 was commander of the army wing of Hamas, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades. He was killed subsequently in 2012 in a focused Israeli airstrike. Now Meidan says Yehya Sinwar, Hamas’ chief within the Gaza Strip and one of many founders of the group’s army wing, is the important thing participant — together with Mohammed Deif, who deliberate the October 7 terror assault on southern Israel, and Marwan Issa, who’s the deputy chief of Hamas’ army wing. “It’s these three,” he mentioned.

“The Individuals are deeply concerned. I’ve the impression that on the American facet there’s a really excessive degree of engagement and it’s coming straight from the highest,” Meidan mentioned. However the American function can solely be restricted, and Washington will not be finest positioned to be a negotiator. “What it could do is stress the Egyptians and Qataris and instill a way of urgency,” he says. Final week, Mossad chief David Barnea and CIA Director William Burns had been in Qatar to debate methods to win the discharge of the hostages in Gaza with the Qatari prime minister, based on media reviews.

Meidan mentioned the negotiations this time spherical will probably be tougher than what he encountered a dozen years in the past. First, he was bartering for only one soldier, not for round 240 captives, largely civilian; and he wasn’t negotiating in opposition to the backdrop of an all-out battle.

And although he couldn’t sit reverse Jabari due to Israeli legal guidelines, he and the Hamas chief had been in adjoining rooms in Cairo throughout the last phases with the Egyptians ferrying messages backwards and forwards as they bargained. Meidan knew a deal was close to when Jabari began to simply accept that it could be inconceivable for Israel to launch a few of the Palestinians that Hamas wished freed. “That was after I knew he was turning pragmatic,” he mentioned.

‘Extra advanced’

Egyptian generals had been essential in pulling off the Shalit deal, based on Meidan. He thinks they are going to be key once more — together with one basic who led the Egyptian staff in 2006.

“Now it’s much more advanced,” Meidan mentioned. Nobody is in adjoining rooms, and it’s rather more laborious and time-consuming.

“What you have got now could be the Israelis and the Individuals speaking with the Qataris, who’re then passing messages to the Hamas political leaders in Doha, who then talk with Gaza. And you’ve got Egyptians speaking with Hamas leaders in Gaza. The Israelis draft proposals and the Individuals tweak them. The Qataris and the Egyptians make recommendations. The ultimate model is shipped to Gaza through the Hamas leaders in Doha,” he added.

Hamas has alternative ways of speaking between the political and army leaders, together with utilizing cell telephones, that are simply monitored. “Every spherical of bargaining takes two to a few days” slowing the method and drawing out the bargaining, says Meidan. “It takes a variety of time however, alas, time is of the essence,” he mentioned.

Meidan had wished Israel to prioritize hostage negotiations a lot sooner — and earlier than Israel began to pummel Gaza and launch army floor operations. 

“Now we’re in a unique state of affairs,” he mentioned. He faults Netanyahu for dragging his toes. “I listened rigorously to the statements of the Hamas leaders, and I received the impression they had been shocked on the worldwide outrage after the horrible October 7 assault and had been making an attempt to argue that the worst of what occurred wasn’t carried out by their fighters,” Meidan mentioned.

Meidan mentioned the easiest way to engineer a deal now could be to make use of the humanitarian pauses to push a humanitarian line on Hamas and argue they need to reciprocate by releasing captive infants, youngsters, the aged and the infirm. “However it is extremely troublesome,” he mentioned.

‘Rollercoaster of feelings’

The households of the hostages are getting ever extra impatient and determined, he mentioned. Most are holding off calling for a cease-fire, leaving it to the federal government to find out one of the best methods of getting their kinfolk again, Meidan mentioned. Most are arguing that Netanyahu ought to launch all and any Palestinians held in Israeli jails that Hamas desires freed.

However that would change quickly. “They’re going by means of a rollercoaster of feelings and may say various things from each day — it’s important to keep in mind there are a lot of kinfolk concerned they usually don’t all agree,” Meidan mentioned. However with every passing day, extra are saying to me that there must be a cease-fire to save lots of as many hostages as potential,” he mentioned.

If the hostage households as a bunch start to name for a cease-fire, it may shift home Israeli politics dramatically, presenting Netanyahu with a probably explosive political second, say opposition politicians. The battle goals to wreck Hamas’ army capabilities, defang the group to forestall any repetition of October 7 has monumental public backing, but when Israel is confronted with a stark alternative of selecting between the hostages and the army marketing campaign, then Israelis will prioritize getting the captives launched, say some opposition politicians.

“Principally, should you ask me, the hostages have to return first, we should always get them dwelling,” Yair Lapid of the centrist Yesh Atid social gathering and chief of the opposition, informed POLITICO. Though he mentioned he thought in sensible phrases Israel received’t be confronted with such a black-and-white dilemma. However whether it is, “we may have our likelihood to kill whoever we have to kill afterwards. If we’re confronted with a alternative, then we should go along with the hostages as a result of that’s the fundamental contract the nation has with the households,” he added.

Former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert agrees that there doesn’t should be a clear-cut alternative. “I’m not certain it is going to come to an either-or. I don’t suppose that if Israel stops now, then we’ll get the hostages. And I don’t suppose that if we don’t cease, we’ll lose the hostages,” he mentioned.

“After we negotiated the discharge of Gilad Shalit, we had been nonetheless confronting Hamas and killing terrorists they usually by no means harmed him as a result of they understood he was an asset and a bargaining chip which they didn’t need to lose. They shield the property,” he mentioned. However he and different politicians acknowledge say that if the households of the hostages name en masse for a cease-fire, it is going to roil Israel’s home politics.