US ‘pause’ on future liquefied gas exports throws doubt on fossil fuel’s place in energy transition

For the reason that first cargo of American liquefied pure fuel (LNG) left a terminal on the Gulf of Mexico sure for Brazil in February 2016, US exports of the gasoline have boomed. In 2023 the US was each the world’s largest producer of pure fuel and its largest exporter of LNG, with exports that yr totalling 86 million tons.

Pure fuel (methane) is burned to generate warmth and electrical energy. Cooling it to -162 levels centigrade at an LNG plant turns it right into a liquid that makes attainable transport internationally utilizing specialised ships, LNG carriers.

Stress was constructing on the US president, Joe Biden, and his power secretary, Jennifer Granholm, to evaluation the legitimacy of latest licenses for producing LNG on the finish of 2023. On January 26, Biden introduced a brief pause on approvals of pending LNG initiatives till a evaluation could possibly be accomplished.

The pause will enable the US Division of Power to replace the premise upon which it determines whether or not a selected LNG mission is “within the nationwide curiosity”. The evaluation will take into account the impression of LNG exports on power prices for American customers, the sufficiency of home provide and the surroundings, each domestically and by way of local weather change.

Biden has not stopped exports from current initiatives or building work on future ones, whether or not or not they’ve the required approvals. It’s only the Division of Power’s approval course of that’s below evaluation. The Division of Power authorises exports to international locations with which the US doesn’t have a free commerce settlement (FTA) and between February 2016 and November 2023, 80% of all US LNG exported by vessel went to non-FTA counties, amongst them China, Japan and all European importing international locations. In 2023, Europe alone accounted for 60% of US LNG exports.

So, the “pause” is not going to cease a large growth within the capability of the US to make and distribute LNG. Sufficient terminals are being constructed so as to add 70 million tons of LNG a yr, bringing whole annual capability to 160 million tons by 2028. The pause will not less than have an effect on the dozen or so terminals but to be selected (amounting to about 50 million tons a yr).

It’s unclear how lengthy the pause on regulatory approvals will final, however an consequence is unlikely earlier than November’s election. The highlight on US LNG exports is not less than an opportunity to query whether or not fuel ought to have a spot within the power transition.

Freedom LNG

Environmental teams and communities residing close to LNG terminals (who’re uncovered to harmful ranges of air pollution) have welcomed Biden’s choice.

Republican politicians and the oil and fuel business have been much less supportive. One group of senators argued a restrict on US exports wouldn’t have an effect on the world’s demand for pure fuel, however was dangerous for the American financial system and would value jobs.

The US media in the meantime has portrayed the pause as an try by the Biden administration to bolster its environmental credentials forward of the election. Donald Trump, his doubtless opponent, vowed to “…approve the export terminals on [his] very first day again”.

The Trump administration described US LNG exports as “molecules of freedom” in 2019 that might scale back Europe’s reliance on Russian fuel. This now appears prophetic. Exports of US LNG have performed a serious function in Europe’s pivot away from Russian pipeline fuel because the 2022 Ukraine invasion. Nevertheless, the US growth has additionally had a profound impression on the worldwide LNG market.

The standard LNG mannequin tied producers and customers into long-term contracts with vacation spot clauses that constrained the place LNG could possibly be offered. In impact, a floating pipeline connecting two international locations.

As an alternative, US LNG is offered free on board, which means patrons (different oil and fuel corporations, utility corporations and merchants) take possession on the export terminal, organize transport and promote the LNG wherever they need. Patrons of US LNG can ship cargoes to each Europe and Asia, enabling arbitrage between these two markets, successfully globalising the commerce.

Business and power thinktank evaluation means that the liquidity of the worldwide LNG market will probably be untouched by the pause. It doesn’t have an effect on the approaching growth of US manufacturing, which is mirrored by a surge in Qatari output, and so by 2028 the worldwide market could also be oversupplied.

US LNG exports to Europe are safe for now, however Europe has pledged to considerably scale back how a lot fuel it burns. And so, there’s lots of uncertainty round fuel demand within the 2030s and past.

Time to take our foot off the fuel?

The LNG business argues that pure fuel is a cleaner gasoline than coal, producing about half the emissions when burned to generate electrical energy. If international locations meet future power demand with fuel as an alternative of coal, emissions will fall. Nevertheless, different analyses spotlight the methane that leaks from pipelines and recommend that fuel may very well be worse for the local weather than coal.

Even when the business had been to handle these so-called fugitive emissions, gas-fired energy would nonetheless heat the planet and international locations transitioning to pure fuel now will probably be locked into utilizing it for many years to come back, remaining uncovered to sudden modifications in its value.

The answer is to leapfrog from coal to renewables and keep away from fuel as a transition gasoline. If this occurs, the LNG business could possibly be constructing manufacturing capability for which there is no such thing as a market. In fact, business analysts predict that demand will proceed to develop.

The evaluation might compel future export initiatives to clamp down on methane leaks or impose a ban on new initiatives, though that appears unlikely. Its consequence might merely be swept away by a brand new president. However because the world has promised to transition away from fossil fuels, questioning the logic of increasing US LNG exports is an efficient place to begin.