Who’s who at COP28 – POLITICO

This text is a part of the Highway to COP particular report, introduced by SQM.

The annual U.N. local weather summit that begins November 30 has turn into one of many greatest diplomatic setpieces within the world political calendar. 

Organizers expect greater than 70,000 individuals to descend upon Dubai’s Expo Metropolis: activists, billionaires, presidents, Indigenous leaders, enterprise executives, monarchs and diplomats from each nook of the world. A couple of will maintain sway over the result of the talks. Some will make noise on behalf of weak ecosystems and island nations. Some wish to make aspect offers or burnish their photos again house.

The world’s two greatest local weather decision-makers — U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese language President Xi Jinping — usually are not anticipated to indicate up. However their emissaries will. 

That is POLITICO’s information to a very powerful individuals to observe. 

Sultan al-Jaber, the oil man in cost

Is he the least best particular person to steer a world local weather convention at such a essential time? Or may he be simply what the world wants?

For al-Jaber’s detractors, together with greater than 130 lawmakers within the U.S. and Europe, the United Arab Emirates’ choice to place the chief government of its nationwide oil firm on the helm of the summit was a nasty joke. “Fully ridiculous,” mentioned Greta Thunberg.

Others maintain out hope that al-Jaber could be the final word “poacher turned gamekeeper” —capable of command distinctive affect over his friends on the high of the world’s most polluting oil and gasoline producers.

Central to the COP28 program he’s put ahead has been a push to get fossil gas corporations to get rid of their methane emissions by 2030 — slicing out a potent supply of the business’s planet-warming air pollution. He additionally needs them to “align” with objectives of slicing web greenhouse gasoline air pollution to zero by 2050. Twenty companies have signed as much as these objectives already, he has mentioned.

However his legacy from his yr as COP president will in all probability be judged by the language that almost 200 governments comply with within the coming weeks round fossil fuels. Will they decide to  a “phase-out” — learn as ending manufacturing completely — or a extra lenient “section down”? And will they embrace carbon seize, an costly (and largely unproven) know-how that proponents say may enable fossil fuels and aggressive local weather motion to co-exist.

If international locations agree on language that goes straightforward on the oil and gasoline giants, al-Jaber’s doubters will say they had been proper all alongside.

John Kerry, US local weather envoy 

Biden’s right-hand man on local weather since 2021, Kerry — a former U.S. secretary of state and the Democrats’ 2004 presidential candidate — will flip 80 on the summit’s penultimate scheduled day.

Eight years in the past, then-Secretary Kerry helped U.S. President Barack Obama safe the landmark Paris Settlement, a world pledge to work to restrict the rise within the Earth’s temperatures. This time, as international locations battle to nail down what meaning, Kerry’s legacy could be very a lot on the road.

Kerry’s COP28 could possibly be outlined by two key relationships, each of which he’s cultivated diligently over the previous yr and extra.

The primary is with al-Jaber, the summit president, whom Kerry has recognized for years. Towards a refrain of inexperienced critics, Kerry has referred to as the UAE oil chief a “terrific selection,” embracing the concept which you can’t sort out emissions with out the fossil gas corporations within the room.

The second relationship is with Kerry’s Chinese language reverse quantity, Xie Zhenhua. The 2 males met over 5 days in California three weeks earlier than the summit — securing agreements together with a pledge that China would scale back emissions from its energy sector this decade. Their joint “Sunnylands Assertion” was broadly well-received by local weather advocates — and has given COP28 early momentum.

However Kerry faces huge challenges earlier than he slices that birthday cake: The U.S. isn’t prone to commit cash to a landmark fund for poorer nations’ local weather damages, a pot of cash that has positioned Washington at odds with each growing international locations and the European Union. And regardless of the numerous efforts at U.S.-China cooperation, broader friction between the 2 international locations will grasp over the summit’s outcomes.

Simon Stiell, UN local weather chief

A former small-island champion from Grenada, Stiell took the helm of the United Nations Framework Conference on Local weather Change simply months earlier than local weather talks final yr in Egypt. 

His sudden appointment was welcomed by local weather negotiators, who highlighted his previous authorities expertise as useful in shifting the local weather change secretariat from an period of constructing pledges to serving to flip them into motion. 

At local weather talks in 2021, he co-led a push to get international locations to align their local weather plans with the Paris Settlement’s (all-but-unreachable) goal of limiting world warming to 1.5 levels Celsius. However his function requires him to stability the competing pursuits of practically 200 nations, together with the petrostate internet hosting the Dubai talks.

When reporters requested what he considered COP 28’s greatest controversy so far — the UAE’s choice to faucet al-Jaber as summit president — Stiell waded in rigorously. “It supplies a possibility to ask some very troublesome questions, but in addition to hunt some very troublesome however wanted solutions,” he mentioned.

Madeleine Diouf Sarr, a voice for the least developed

The 46-member negotiating bloc that represents the world’s so-called least-developed international locations combines low-lying Pacific islands, conflict-torn nations and greater than half of the international locations in Africa. 

When Diouf Sarr took over as chair of the group in January 2022, she was the primary lady to steer the 22-year-old bloc and has spoken in regards to the vital function ladies play in worldwide negotiations. Her focus has been on drawing consideration to the disparities worsened by local weather change.

Senegal, the place she heads the local weather change division on the nation’s setting ministry, will face challenges shifting to wash vitality because it develops if it doesn’t obtain enough monetary assist. A push by President Macky Sall to develop current oil and gasoline discoveries solely highlights the stark selection going through international locations like Senegal. 

The least-developed international locations “are house to over 14 % of the world’s inhabitants however use only one % of emissions, and but we’re those struggling the best prices of the local weather disaster,” Diouf Sarr mentioned in an announcement following a gathering final month the place ministers from the bloc laid out their priorities for COP28. 

She’ll be pushing for clear targets on serving to weak international locations adapt to a warming world and for cash to move right into a fund for local weather damages.

Pope Francis, God’s man on the summit

For the primary time, a pope is heading to the U.N. local weather gathering.

Throughout his tenure, Francis — who took his title from the animal-loving St. Francis of Assisi — has put local weather change firmly on the Catholic Church’s agenda. First he issued Laudato Si, an influential 2015 papal encyclical that made an moral case for local weather motion. Earlier this yr he revealed a follow-up, Laudato Deum, which carried an enchantment for people to acknowledge pure and moral limits to financial and technological improvement.

Skyscraper-obsessed megacity Dubai might be an odd place to try to land that message — however Francis goes to strive. He’s on the town for the opening levels of the summit, with a speech scheduled for Dec. 2. He’ll hope Xi, Biden, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and others might be listening, even when from afar.

“By no means has humanity had such energy over itself, but nothing ensures that will probably be used correctly, significantly once we contemplate how it’s at present getting used,” Francis wrote in Laudato Si. He added, “In whose fingers does all this energy lie, or will it will definitely find yourself? This can be very dangerous for a small a part of humanity to have it.”   

Pedro Luis Pedroso Cuesta, chair of the G77 + China

The most important negotiating bloc on the COP is the so-called G77 + China. It features all through the U.N., was based in 1964 and now contains 134 international locations, encompassing all growing international locations.

It’s a giant grouping with a variety of priorities and viewpoints — and there are smaller negotiating blocs inside it. However on some core points — significantly round local weather finance —  it stands broadly united.

The rotating chair is held, this yr, by Cuba. Pedroso, a veteran diplomat, is Havana’s particular consultant for the presidency and can probably play a key coordinating function on the summit.

Throughout essential pre-summit conferences in Abu Dhabi that reached a tentative settlement on “loss and injury” funding for poorer international locations, Pedroso put the success of the talks right down to “the unity of the G77 regardless of the numerous makes an attempt of developed international locations to fracture the group.”

“Unity is our power,” he mentioned.

Ruslan Edelgeriyev, Putin’s local weather adviser

Russia made itself a pariah amongst Western international locations with its invasion of Ukraine. However at COP, you’ve received to have interaction even along with your worst enemies.

An important determine in Moscow’s delegation is anticipated to be Edelgeriyev, Vladimir Putin’s local weather adviser since 2018.

Fifth among the many world’s greatest carbon polluters (behind China, the U.S., India and the E.U.) Russia can be one of many world’s nice local weather laggards, with an economic system nonetheless extremely depending on producing and promoting oil and pure gasoline.

However regardless of the battle totally dominating Russia’s political agenda, Moscow’s local weather coverage not too long ago confirmed a flicker of life, with the publication of a brand new local weather doctrine that locked within the nation’s 2060 web zero objective.

Edelgeriyev is seen domestically as a key determine retaining some semblance of local weather motion contained in the Russian authorities — however don’t anticipate Moscow’s delegation to be something apart from troublesome over makes an attempt to set extra formidable emissions-cutting objectives.

Xie Zhenhua, China’s local weather envoy

Like his fellow septuagenarian Kerry, Xie is a diplomatic veteran approaching his swansong at COP28.

China’s long-standing local weather envoy is standing down after the summit, based on reporting by Reuters — and his relationship with Kerry may show pivotal to the summit’s success or failure.

In contrast to at previous COPs, China can now not be pigeonholed as a pantomime villain of the summit. The world’s worst coal addict and largest producer of greenhouse gases is, paradoxically, additionally a powerhouse of inexperienced vitality, house to half the world’s working wind and photo voltaic capability. It dominates world provide chains for photo voltaic and for electrical automotive batteries. 

The world can don’t have any good local weather end result with out Beijing — and Xie is aware of it. China’s commitments, following the Xie-Kerry talks, to cut back emissions from its energy sector this decade and to curb all greenhouse gases (not simply carbon dioxide) is seen as an excellent begin by local weather campaigners. However Xie’s clear previous assertion {that a} fossil gas “phase-out” is “unrealistic” appears to have harm the probabilities of that phrase making it into the ultimate settlement.

Invoice Gates, inexperienced enterprise

Fashionable local weather summits aren’t simply negotiations between earnest (and never so earnest) authorities and U.N. officers. They’re commerce gala’s.

That’s a mirrored image of how the vitality transition has turn into huge enterprise, a driving drive of the worldwide economic system — not only a ethical crucial.

However for Gates, nonetheless one of many world’s richest individuals, it’s each — and he’ll be at COP28 with two hats on.

One is the philanthropist urging governments to go additional quicker for the advantage of the world’s poorest individuals, who might be on the sharp finish of the acute climate, drought and flooding that local weather change will drive.

The opposite is the investor, by means of his Breakthrough Power Ventures initiative, which takes stakes in corporations and know-how that Gates and his advisers suppose are prone to make a giant contribution to combating local weather change — and generate profits.  

Vanessa Nakate, the activist

COP conferences entice not solely the world’s leaders but in addition the world’s foremost local weather campaigners.

Nakate’s buddy Thunberg makes essentially the most headlines, however the 27 year-old Ugandan activist is rising in prominence. Her voice will rely at a summit the place wealthy international locations face stress to make agency commitments to the “loss and injury” fund they promised final yr to assist poorer international locations deal with local weather change.

Nakate can even use her platform to push again on “distractions” to a fossil gas phase-out, corresponding to “allusions to carbon seize and storage know-how,” a spokesperson mentioned in an e-mail. She has additionally referred to as out Western corporations’ rush to finance gasoline manufacturing in Africa — a fossil gas glut she says might be “a horrible deal” for the continent.  

Khalid al-Mehaid, Saudi chief negotiator

The world’s greatest oil exporter is coming to Dubai — simply subsequent door — decided to make the case that the issue is carbon air pollution, not the fossil fuels that produce them.

International locations that suppose that seems like doublethink might want to take it up with al-Mehaid.

Already this yr, Saudi Arabia has pushed again towards stronger motion throughout the G20 on phasing out oil, gasoline and coal. Amin Nasser, head of the dominion’s state oil firm, Aramco, has criticized the concept that local weather motion ought to imply international locations “both shut down or decelerate huge time” their fossil gas manufacturing.

As an alternative, Al-Mehaid has talked up plans to put money into carbon seize and scale back the air pollution that’s produced when drilling or mining fossil fuels. Saudi Arabia additionally needs to go from virtually whole dominance of oil and gasoline in its home vitality combine to 50 % renewables by 2030.

However few anticipate the Saudis — on the coronary heart of the worldwide oil market — to be something apart from a blocker in Dubai.

Wopke Hoekstra — the EU’s beginner John Kerry

The European Union’s new local weather motion commissioner is heading to Dubai after simply two months on the job. 

The tall Dutchman stepped into Frans Timmermans’ footwear in October with little to no expertise in local weather diplomacy, and has been on a steep studying curve ever since.  

A former Shell worker and conservative finance minister, Hoekstra confronted hostility from inexperienced campaigners and left-wing politicians upon taking workplace. That largely dissipated as soon as he dedicated to formidable post-2030 local weather targets and pushed for a more durable line towards fossil fuels than EU governments ultimately gave him a negotiating mandate for.

Whereas he’s zigzagged the globe in current weeks to go to key international locations from Brazil to China, as the brand new child on the COP, he lacks the expertise and the non-public connections Timmermans solid over time. Dubai might be an opportunity to make his mark. 

Teresa Ribera — Europe’s COP veteran 

The Spanish local weather diplomat is representing the European Union in Dubai as a result of a quirk within the bloc’s legislative system: Madrid now holds the rotating presidency of the EU’s ministerial council, which supplies Spain’s ecological transition minister equal billing alongside Hoekstra at COP28. 

Throughout her tenure as ecological transition minister, Spain has accelerated its shift away from coal and efficiently fought for a serious change within the EU’s energy market. 

Ribera spent a lot of this yr campaigning for stronger efforts to guard nature at each the nationwide and EU degree.

A Spanish Socialist who has attended quite a few local weather summits, Ribera brings years of negotiating expertise to the EU’s Dubai crew — whereas serving as a foil to center-right COP beginner Hoekstra. 

Kate Hampton, local weather convenor

One of the crucial linked individuals at any COP, Hampton chairs the influential European Local weather Basis, which funds local weather marketing campaign teams and suppose tanks throughout the EU and the U.Okay. 

The quintessential backroom operator, Hampton doesn’t do press, however her community spans Europe, India and China and he or she co-chaired an advisory group to the Africa Local weather Summit held in September.  

In her day job, she’s CEO of the Kids’s Funding Fund Basis NGO — however on the summit, she has a line into a few of the key figures who could make or break a deal. 

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, voice for the Amazon 

Brazil’s president introduced star energy to final yr’s local weather talks in Egypt, promising to finish deforestation and produce his nation again into the local weather combat. (Brazil has bid to host COP30 in 2025.) Since his return to steer the nation that’s house to a lot of the Amazon, forest clearing has fallen to its lowest price in years, preliminary evaluation reveals. 

Lula, as he’s broadly recognized, has sought nearer commerce ties with China on the identical time that he’s earned a $500 million pledge from the U.S. for a fund to cease deforestation. He’s additionally highlighted the imbalance of a Western-oriented world order, and sought to showcase the concept that financial development and emissions reductions aren’t in opposition to at least one one other. 

The selections Brazil makes matter deeply to the destiny of the planet, not solely as a result of the collapse of the Amazon may launch the large quantities of carbon saved in these forests. The nation can be boosting manufacturing from its main oil and gasoline reserves, elevating questions on a lot Lula is prepared to decide to an finish to fossil fuels. 

Mohamed Nasr, local weather finance dealer

In a world system the place cash is essential to local weather motion, Egypt’s lead local weather negotiator has been one of many foremost voices pushing wealthy international locations to ship on their guarantees. 

Nasr has led local weather finance negotiations on behalf of African international locations for greater than a decade, pointing to the challenges many countries face securing funding that doesn’t drown them in debt. 

Final yr he drew consideration to contradictions in the best way the U.S. and the European Union referred to as for an finish to fossil gas finance for cash-strapped, energy-poor African nations on the identical time they had been looking for to put money into pure gasoline infrastructure. 

The Egyptian diplomat led final yr’s COP27 negotiations in his house nation, which ended with a historic settlement to ascertain a fund that may assist international locations rebuild after local weather disasters. (Deciding who ought to run that fund, or getting international locations just like the U.S. to contribute any cash to it, has been a a lot more durable chore.) 

He then served on a committee tasked with designing the outlines of that fund, urging early within the course of that it couldn’t turn into “one other empty shell.” Final month Nasr issued a provocative warning: Wealthy international locations may face worldwide litigation in the event that they don’t pay up. 

Mia Mottley, a drive for local weather fairness

The prime minister of Barbados got here on the local weather change scene on the United Nations Common Meeting in 2018. It was there that the newly elected chief painted a wrenching image of the trauma her nation and different small islands confronted from the growing impacts of local weather change: lives on the road, diminishing coastland, the fixed cycle of economy-wrecking tropical storms.

It was her first such speech. It will be removed from her final. 

Within the years that adopted, Mottley would work with trusted adviser Avinash Persaud to craft the Bridgetown Initiative, a plan to make more cash accessible to international locations that undergo essentially the most however contribute the least to the local weather disaster. 

She’s turn into a champion for debt-pause clauses that put a maintain on repayments when disasters strike and has earned the backing of highly effective figures, together with French President Emmanuel Macron and new World Financial institution chief Ajay Banga.

Ever brazen in her supply, Mottley has additionally referred to as out rich-country hypocrisy and led a push to overtake the worldwide monetary system to make it extra simply and equitable. “The world can’t be formed by merely an previous order,” she mentioned earlier this yr. 

Jennifer Morgan, German local weather envoy 

Former Greenpeace chief Jennifer Morgan grew to become Germany’s first-ever local weather envoy final yr, making Dubai the second COP she’s attending as a part of a nationwide delegation. In current weeks, she’s been touring throughout the South Pacific to strengthen ties with a few of the most climate-vulnerable international locations. 

Morgan doesn’t mince her phrases in the case of the necessity for decreasing emissions quicker, however her sway throughout the German authorities is proscribed — and variations between the Inexperienced-led overseas ministry she’s a part of and the remainder of the coalition authorities danger undermining Berlin’s credibility on the summit. 

For instance, Morgan advised reporters on a visit to New Zealand that “there isn’t any room for brand new coal, oil or gasoline exploration.” However German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has signaled he’s prepared to assist international locations like Senegal or Nigeria open new gasoline fields. 

King Charles III, royal activist

The U.Okay.’s “inexperienced king” has been an environmental advocate most of his grownup life. Now on the age of 75, he’s attending his first COP as monarch (he went to 2 others as prince of Wales).

He doesn’t maintain any actual energy again house, however he’s been granted a first-rate slot on the schedule by his UAE hosts and can ship the opening handle on the world chief’s summit in the beginning of COP28.

He additionally has conferences booked with regional leaders and is internet hosting a enterprise convention.

Local weather advocates might be hoping {that a} contact of royal razzle-dazzle can affect the ministers of oil-rich Gulf monarchies in a manner that mere politicians by no means may.

Local weather could be a matter of religion for the monarch. However his prime minister, Rishi Sunak, has rowed again a few of the U.Okay.’s interim web zero targets and is embracing North Sea oil and gasoline manufacturing. They’re the COP28 odd couple.

This text is a part of the Highway to COP particular report, introduced by SQM. The article is produced with full editorial independence by POLITICO reporters and editors. Be taught extra about editorial content material introduced by outdoors advertisers.