Will Frans Timmermans be the next Dutch PM on Wednesday?

The one factor that prevented an bizarre November morning morphing right into a calamity have been these pushing the flood-control buttons (and promptly fixing a malfunctioning sluice).

This one way or the other displays what the Netherlands in 2023 is all about: a rustic in denial that, by a hair’s breadth, plus a practice of punctiliousness, scrapes by and prevents public providers from breaking down totally — regardless of years of neglect and austerity imposed by prime minister Mark Rutte’s first three governments.

I say denial as a result of the capital’s near-flooding barely obtained any media consideration in any respect exterior of that NRC article — printed two weeks later.

In actual fact, local weather change (or flood safety) will not be a distinguished election subject in any respect this 12 months. Out of the 4 prime polling events, local weather change solely options prominently within the Labour-Inexperienced marketing campaign led by former EU heavyweight Frans Timmermans, who was Inexperienced Deal commissioner earlier than leaving Brussels to return to Dutch politics in August.

As EUobserver beforehand reported, one of many buzzwords defining these elections is ‘bestaanszekerheid,’ a time period that interprets to “livelihood safety.” A subject Labour-Inexperienced historically excels in and has now promised to rebuild by investing extra within the welfare state.

Livelihood safety is decided by greater than revenue and work; it depends upon a set of interconnected and interdependent property and situations that make up a life value residing.

This consists of inexpensive housing and social capital gained from intact native communities that want issues like respectable healthcare, schooling or a park bench to maintain it. Issues Timmermans has promised to speculate extra in.

His occasion, a brand new coalition between the Inexperienced Left and the Dutch Labour Social gathering (PvdA), briefly shot up within the polls when the brand new alliance was introduced.

That instantly made him a contender for the highest spot. And when he attended the annual congress of the European Socialists in Málaga simply over per week in the past, he was hailed because the Netherlands’ new prime minister in all however identify.

However all will not be nicely on the socialist entrance.

‘Timmermans Impact’ not working?

“It is clear that the marketing campaign is not progressing in the best way [the new left] anticipated,” political scientist Simon Otjes advised EUosberver.

The hoped-for ‘Timmermans-effect’, that resulted in a doubling of the Socialist & Democrats vote within the 2019 European Parliamentary elections has not translated again to the nationwide stage. Like in earlier campaigns, the EU has barely featured as a subject throughout these elections, making it tougher for Timmermans to level to previous successes.

“The EU historically is an unpopular election subject. The cliché has it that voters have a tendency to vary channels if the EU is talked about,” stated Otjes.

Within the remaining stretch of the Dutch elections, the narrative has taken maintain that the previous Inexperienced Deal chief will not be pulling his weight (pun not meant, though Timmermans’ weight has been the butt of jokes on nationwide tv on a number of events.)

His occasion — now polling at 16 p.c — is again on the stage it was earlier than the events merged and he introduced his candidacy.

He’s now projected to rank fourth subsequent week, trailing the liberal VVD (caretaker prime minister Mark Rutte’s occasion now led by Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius), the overtly anti-Islam Social gathering for Freedom led by Geert Wilders and the New Social Contract, a breakaway occasion based solely in August by Pieter Omtzigt, a former long-serving member of parliament for the centre-right CDA.

Although Omtzigt has been in politics for over 20 years, he has efficiently managed to launch a “challenger marketing campaign,” stated Otjes.

“The Netherlands historically has had a centre-right majority,” he stated. The one time it has had a solidly leftwing authorities was within the mid-Seventies.

The best way Labour has historically handled that reality has primarily consisted of the identical two components for many years.

First, by positioning itself as the one possible leftwing various in a position to govern. And second: by centring the marketing campaign round who will grow to be prime minister.

The dynamic the Inexperienced Labour marketing campaign group had clearly hoped for, nevertheless, has not materialised and is now as an alternative characterised by a challenger versus the institution, which places the highly-experienced Timmermans at a drawback.

“Omtzigt has utterly altered the political panorama,” he stated.

Who is definitely ‘the outsider’?

The dearth of enthusiasm for Timmermans might, partially, be ascribed to voters in search of a special face quite than confirmed management.

But Yeşilgöz-Zegerius leads a celebration that has been in energy for 26 out of the 29 years — a reality she expertly has managed to hide throughout debates.

Omtzigt, the principle challenger, has been in politics for over 20 years and is the second-longest-sitting MP and some of the skilled politicians within the nation.

In the meantime, Wilders, who needs the Netherlands to go away the EU, is at present polling because the primary in some forecasts.

Join EUobserver’s day by day e-newsletter

All of the tales we publish, despatched at 7.30 AM.

By signing up, you conform to our Phrases of Use and Privateness Coverage.

Wilders, whom no person needed to ask into authorities for years, has modified his tune considerably to seem ‘milder’ and improve his probabilities of governing. He additionally positions himself as an outsider. In actual fact, he’s now the longest-sitting MP within the 150-seat parliament.

But it was Timmermans who was attacked in a televised debate by the entire above for being the perennial insider — any individual who, as Wilders described it, has “misplaced grip on actuality.”

Intellectually, many social democrats might have anticipated these elections to really feel extra like a house recreation. “We will undoubtedly beat them,” one campaigner advised EUobserver anonymously, referring to the far-right.

And there’s a perception that leftwing matters are well-liked.

Timmermans campaigned on a ticket to lift the minimal wage, shield the local weather and lift taxes for multinational firms and shareholders, proposals ostensibly not a troublesome promote in some of the unequal nations in Europe.

However with polling numbers trending down, a vocal group of (former) occasion members are panicking, calling out Timmermans on social media for being too centrist, though it’s unclear whether or not that will shift the stability at this late stage.

“The left, to a level, has misplaced its contact on topics regarding the welfare state and safety of livelihood,” stated Andrej Zaslove, an assistant professor of comparative politics at Radboud College. Labour continues to be blamed for the austerity imposed by Rutte’s second authorities, which included the Labour Social gathering then led by Diederik Samsom, who later turned Timmermans’ cupboard chief in Brussels.

An extra problem dealing with the left is that ‘bestaansrecht’, the phrase meant to encapsulate the social democratic beliefs right into a bitesize bit, has misplaced which means.

Final Thursday evening (16 November) the highest 4 candidates confronted one another, to debate their plans for the nation’s future.

Though the talk shortly devolved right into a confused and shameful mud-slinging contest, it turned clear that every one main events had annexed ‘bestaanszekerheid’ because the central marketing campaign theme — simply decoding it in another way.

Whereas the VVD applies the time period to imply decrease taxes for “hard-working individuals,” the liberal-left D66 associates it with the correct to find out the tip of life.

Wilders has promised to scrap medical insurance prices — a promise his opponents say lacks monetary backing — and Omtzigt retains repeating the phrase, though its which means is considerably elusive.

“I’ve no clue what he means with it,” Zaslove advised EUobverer.

However that will not matter that a lot for normal voters. “They belief him. People who find themselves typically distrustful of politicians consider he’s not the kind that likes to be pushed round by a chauffeur,” stated Otjes.

“A lot can nonetheless change within the remaining days earlier than the elections,” added Otjes, a view echoed by most polling consultants. With Wilders now a contender for the highest spot, Timmermans, who has repeatedly stated “he doesn’t need to get up in a rustic the place [Wilders party] is primary,” might appeal to strategic anti-Wilders votes.

“I count on that we are going to see extra strategic votes,” stated Peter Kanne, senior researcher at I&O Analysis, one of many principal Dutch polling companies.

“Within the earlier elections, it leaned in direction of D66 and Sigrid Kaag; this time, it might go in direction of GreenLeft-PvdA. I count on a small shock on the left,” he stated.